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the project lead's 6 October 2026 ask: deep backward and forward research across the hash, finality, economy, network and every shipped surface. This commit carries the first three lanes. - docs/analysis/horizon/algorithm.md: the chip model on the 6 October numbers (f = 1 GDDR7 chip 5.7x per joule against the 5090 at class v3, 2.1x at class v4 with k = 1), the FPGA lane tightened to 0.30x to 0.47x per watt, the reserve R0 to R8, the reconciled shadow-N ladder (section 5.3a) with HBM4 and three verifier brackets, the first measured verifier proxy on igneum-build-1 (class v4 5.06 ms cold, dr736 10.51: out), the dataset schedule to 2030; model sim/horizon/algorithm/model.py. - docs/analysis/horizon/frontier.md: sixteen ideas ranked by payoff over difficulty with the Monero and Kaspa attacks, prior art cited, the honest never column; model sim/horizon/frontier/frontier_model.py. - docs/analysis/horizon/new-pow.md sections 0 to 4: three new proof-of-work schemes defined, reviewed in two personas, scheme A (mining is proving) ruled out on bytes and sampleability, B and C in prototype on two rented 4090s; measured rows follow. - docs/analysis/horizon-2026-10.md: the summary skeleton and the lane table. Every rental cost cites docs/bench-log.md "Rental cost of hash, 6 October 2026". Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Horizon, October 2026: the ranked research across every system
Written 6 to 7 October 2026 by the Horizon coordinator (branch horizon, worktree igneum-wt-horizon) on the project lead's ask of 6 October 2026, 20:4x UK: "deep backward and forward predictive research and modelling for our algo and all of our systems: is there room for improvement, room for more coin utility, algo improvements, security improvements, anything we can do to make a 51% attack impossible, basically creating a level of polish that has not been seen before." Later the same evening: "research anything else that we can research too, predictions, forward thinking, what we can actually do that has not been done or applied, think outside the box", "be revolutionary", and "if we create a new way of hashing or a new way of proof of work to revolutionise the space then that's absolutely fine, I want you to deploy everything to create something that has not ever been done before."
The bar main set, and the bar this document holds every claim to: "impossible" is not available to any proof-of-work chain. The bar is that a majority of hash buys nothing: it cannot reverse what finality locked, cannot forge a proof the nodes re-execute, cannot change a rule without 95 percent signalling, and loses more than it earns. Every claim here is a number with a model or a simulation behind it, priced in rented hash at the measured 6 October rate (docs/bench-log.md, "Rental cost of hash, 6 October 2026": USD 0.0117 per MH/s-hour, the live devnet at 1.16 GH/s), with its consequence per tier and what to build.
The lanes
| Lane | File | State |
|---|---|---|
| 1 consensus-security | docs/analysis/horizon/consensus-security.md, and the paper docs/analysis/51-percent.md |
running |
| 2 algorithm | docs/analysis/horizon/algorithm.md |
running |
| 3 finality-and-weight | docs/analysis/horizon/finality-and-weight.md |
running |
| 4 economy-and-utility | docs/analysis/horizon/economy-and-utility.md |
running |
| 5 network | docs/analysis/horizon/network.md |
queued (waits for the 10 bps rows of block-rate-devnet2.md) |
| 6 polish | docs/analysis/horizon/polish.md |
queued |
| 7 frontier | docs/analysis/horizon/frontier.md, model sim/horizon/frontier/frontier_model.py |
landed 6 Oct 2026, 21:1x UK |
| 8 new-proof-of-work | docs/analysis/horizon/new-pow.md, prototypes in proto-newpow/ |
running (designs tonight, measured rows tomorrow afternoon UK) |
1. One page for the project lead
(Written last, from the lanes.)
2. The ranked list: top 25 across every lane
| Rank | Item | Lane | Evidence | Model | Hours | Consequence per tier | What to build | Gate |
|---|
3. What a 51 percent attacker can and cannot do
(Summary of docs/analysis/51-percent.md.)