2e405311a4
docs/analysis/51-percent.md: what a 51 percent attacker can and cannot do on Igneum, with numbers (the selected-chain race over a 90-s hold, the lock as the reorder bound, the veto at 1/3 of weight and its rental cost, the departure case and the LEAVE item, the p2p surface). docs/analysis/horizon/consensus-security.md: the attack catalogue across GHOSTDAG ordering, the difficulty rule, the finality weight, miner signalling, proof records, the exec layer and p2p, each with the bound and the rental cost at the measured USD 11.7 per GH/s-hour; the pruned-node unwrap class with its sibling list in the sync and IBD flows; fourteen ranked defences, three of them not recommended with the reason. Models and results: sim/horizon/consensus-security/ (ghostdag_sim.py, finality_horizon.py, cost_model.py, signalling.py, result files). Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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sim/horizon/consensus-security
Models behind docs/analysis/horizon/consensus-security.md and docs/analysis/51-percent.md (Horizon lane 1, 6 October 2026). Python 3.10 with numpy; run on the Mac under the main checkout's run lock: /Users/joshm/Projects/igneum/tools/lock/with-lock.sh run nice -n 19 <cmd>. Nothing here edits sim/finality_v2.py; finality_horizon.py imports it.
| file | what | run | output |
|---|---|---|---|
ghostdag_sim.py |
GHOSTDAG (as protocol.rs) under a withholding attacker: reorg depth, fork age, win rate, blue share, honest blocks turned red, by hash share H, delay d, hold T; 1 or 10 blocks/s |
python3 ghostdag_sim.py --seeds 20 --out ghostdag_results_1bps.md --json ghostdag_results_1bps.json; --bps 10 --k 124 --delays 0.35,0.67,2 --holds 10,30,60,90 --warm 60 --post 15 |
ghostdag_results_1bps.md/.json, ghostdag_results_10bps.md/.json |
finality_horizon.py |
the finality rule over the adversary's share 20, 34, 51, 67, 90 percent: renter, silent set, bought keys, poisoned eclipse, partition with an equivocator (v2 and v3), abrupt departure (v2 and v3) | python3 finality_horizon.py --out finality_horizon_results.md (about 10 min; --quick for a smoke run) |
finality_horizon_results.md |
signalling.py |
the P2 miner-signalling game: binomial noise, holdout, forced flip, signal then defect, window alternatives | python3 signalling.py --out signalling_results.md |
signalling_results.md |
cost_model.py |
every attack's rented hash, duration, cost at 1 to 1,000 GH/s, subsidy earned, and the rental equilibrium | python3 cost_model.py --out cost_results.md |
cost_results.md |
Price basis USD 11.7 per GH/s-hour, measured 6 October 2026 (docs/bench-log.md, "Rental cost of hash"). Seeds and machine for each result are in the result file's first line.