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adv-accept report: count refreshed to 269,250 (01:08 BST); three new tail seeds queued

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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md
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@ -193,7 +193,7 @@ programs gave X_0.1% = 0.155%. If the tail scales as the extreme of the populati
times that, still under 1% of reads. The census over consecutive seeds (random accepted programs) says how
often the hot-set test fires in the population; that number lands below.
### The selector's base rate (final for tonight, rows read at 23:50 BST: 182,646 accepted programs, 43 shard files de-duplicated by seed)
### The selector's base rate (rows read at 01:08 BST, 8 October: 269,250 accepted programs, 46 shard files de-duplicated by seed)
The stand-in per-site ratio at 256 units, over every accepted program (one row per seed; every seed of the
F8 label space yields an accepted program through the chain draw):
@ -204,18 +204,19 @@ F8 label space yields an accepted program through the chain draw):
| Threshold | Programs under it | Tries per hit |
|---|---|---|
| ratio < 0.9990 | 1,070 of 182,646 | 1 in 171 |
| ratio < 0.9980 (the lowest 25 measured live sat at or under this) | 170 | 1 in 1,074 |
| ratio < 0.9970 | 75 | 1 in 2,435 |
| ratio < 0.9960 | 44 | 1 in 4,151 |
| ratio < 0.9950 | 11 | 1 in 16,604 |
| ratio < 0.9990 | 1,567 of 269,250 | 1 in 172 |
| ratio < 0.9980 (the lowest 25 measured live sat at or under this) | 271 | 1 in 994 |
| ratio < 0.9970 | 119 | 1 in 2,263 |
| ratio < 0.9960 | 70 | 1 in 3,846 |
| ratio < 0.9950 | 17 | 1 in 15,838 |
Over the 182,646: accepted attempt 0..11 = 58,570, 40,057, 26,604, 18,229, 12,685, 8,439, 5,760, 3,956,
2,686, 1,798, 1,185, 829; max 31; mean 2.124; last-resort programs 0; a lossy last write to an output
register in 152,492 (83.5 percent); register-set collapse 0. The eight lowest (148927 at 0.9811, 122960,
130488, 150347, 19921, 29307, 34501, 600738 at 0.9930) are all measured live and at 2^20 (rows above and in
the floor table): two concentrate live (122960 a hot set, 29307 a single hot item), six are clean live and
are the floor's false refusals.
Over the 269,250: accepted attempt 0..11 = 86,535, 58,888, 39,382, 26,829, 18,609, 12,389, 8,531, 5,805,
3,937, 2,683, 1,764, 1,216; max 32; mean 2.121; last-resort programs 0; a lossy last write to an output
register in 224,724 (83.5 percent); register-set collapse 0. Of the ten lowest (148927 at 0.9811, 228763
at 0.9820, 638990 at 0.9879, 122960, 130488, 150347, 19921, 29307, 623492 at 0.9921, 34501), seven are
measured live and at 2^20 (two concentrate live: 122960 a hot set, 29307 a single hot item; five are clean
live, the floor's false refusals) and three surfaced after the 23:50 count (228763, 638990, 623492) and are
queued live and at 2^20.
Cost of the selector: one chain draw per try (about 3 s of one core: the accepted attempt's 2^20 ratio pass
dominates) plus a 256-unit ratio read (milliseconds). A seed-steering attacker who can choose among epoch
@ -827,20 +828,20 @@ kept, frontier 849304) and sweep-s06c (40,679 rows kept, frontier 652538); my tw
withdrawn so they do not take the freed cores; sweep-s02e (23 cores) left running. The four shards re-queue
from their frontiers once the v5 runs hold cores (or after 20 minutes).
## Where the pass stands: the 00:00 BST reading (count and pool state at 23:50 BST)
## Where the pass stands: the 00:00 BST reading (count refreshed 01:08 BST, 8 October; pool state at 23:50 BST)
| Item | Reading |
|---|---|
| Box-hours spent (running time, both boxes, nice 10; pod-hours 0, no GPU, no pod) | about 5.5: the two 88-thread shards for 1.9 h of wall under contention until the 20:21 kill, then shards at 32 or fewer cores through the lease pool with repeated releases to the class v5 work (every release by pgid file, rows kept, re-queued from the recorded frontier); two adv-live confirmation chains, the 10^6-nonce census (51 programs), 34 live rows at 2^24 of the stand-in tail plus 20 random, the gap tool on 61 programs plus 17 decisive 2^20 reads, row 90 on 10,000 seeds, the class v5 exemplar check |
| Q1, the bypass: bound reached | 182,646 distinct accepted programs drawn through the chain path by 23:50 BST (18 percent of the 10^6 planned; 43 shard files de-duplicated by seed; at 23:50 three shards of mine held 87 cores on build-2 and the rest waited: build-1's pool stayed held by attack-pass from 20:42 on, so row 90's second half and four shards never ran there). Eight pass every part of the rule and flag the f8 hot-set test on the LIVE dataset at 2^24 nonces (100767, 4346, 5245, 1738, 170, 106924, 107022, 122960: X_0.1% +0.102 to +0.221 percent, 1.54x to 2.24x over the window model), all eight in the lowest 34 stand-in-ratio seeds; 20 random accepted programs: 1 beyond the f8 gate, 0 hot sets. Every hot set is the top 0.1 percent of items (about 1 MB) holding 0.26 to 0.41 percent of reads against 0.15 expected: an on-die copy saves under 0.3 percent of DRAM reads, gain 1.002x at the largest; no row of chip-model-v3.md moves. Mechanism: a load site whose source reaches zero or all-ones (or one bit off) in hundredths of a percent of evaluations, under the (c') 1 percent limit, mapped by the era stride to one fixed item (item 0x000000 the hottest in four); two further shapes seen (a low-entropy band without saturation; one constant image from a non-saturated source, seed 29307). The exemplar reads the same hot set under the class v5 dataset (the pre-floor draw) |
| Q1, the bypass: bound reached | 269,250 distinct accepted programs drawn through the chain path by 01:08 BST (27 percent of the 10^6 planned; 46 shard files de-duplicated by seed; 182,646 at the 23:50 reading; at 23:50 three shards of mine held 87 cores on build-2 and the rest waited: build-1's pool stayed held by attack-pass from 20:42 on, so row 90's second half and four shards never ran there). Eight pass every part of the rule and flag the f8 hot-set test on the LIVE dataset at 2^24 nonces (100767, 4346, 5245, 1738, 170, 106924, 107022, 122960: X_0.1% +0.102 to +0.221 percent, 1.54x to 2.24x over the window model), all eight in the lowest 34 stand-in-ratio seeds; 20 random accepted programs: 1 beyond the f8 gate, 0 hot sets. Every hot set is the top 0.1 percent of items (about 1 MB) holding 0.26 to 0.41 percent of reads against 0.15 expected: an on-die copy saves under 0.3 percent of DRAM reads, gain 1.002x at the largest; no row of chip-model-v3.md moves. Mechanism: a load site whose source reaches zero or all-ones (or one bit off) in hundredths of a percent of evaluations, under the (c') 1 percent limit, mapped by the era stride to one fixed item (item 0x000000 the hottest in four); two further shapes seen (a low-entropy band without saturation; one constant image from a non-saturated source, seed 29307). The exemplar reads the same hot set under the class v5 dataset (the pre-floor draw) |
| Q1 against the class v5 per-site floor at 0.995 | all 8 live hot sets refused (minimum sites 0.9821 to 0.9919 at the acceptance's own 2^20 sample); 3 mild concentrations missed (Devnet 3 epoch 0 site 0 at 0.9992, adv-cache-2's era-fixed-20 at 0.9997 and era-drawn-2 at 0.9992: about 1.0004x to a chip, adv-cache-2's rotation class); 6 clean-live programs refused and 1 clean passed among the 9 deepest 256-unit seeds (the floor's 2.4 percent clean rejection) |
| The selector | the 256-unit stand-in ratio enriches the live gate 13x (17 beyond of the lowest 25 against 1 of 20 random) and finds the hot sets (8 of 34 against 0 of 20), with false positives 8 of 25 on the gate and 26 of 34 on the hot-set test; below 0.995 it is not sampling noise but a different fact: a low ratio is a thin spread of repeated indices, not a hot set. The 2^20 ratio the rule computes is the real selector; one chain draw costs about 3 s of one core and a seed under 0.998 costs about 1,000 draws |
| Q2, the stand-in gap: bound reached | 54 programs plus 17 decisive reads: closed-form and live per-site ratios agree to 0.0004 at 2^20 (the sampling noise), 0 verdict disagreements, (c) metrics agree to 0.019 of 128; the zero-dataset plant fires. No steering through the gap |
| Q5, distinguishers | a lossy last write to an output register in 83.5 percent of 182,646 accepted programs, no live effect beyond Q1's; register-set collapse 0; the 0.98 floor is live in the tail (0.9811 at 256 units, 0.9814 at 2^20 seen) |
| Q5, distinguishers | a lossy last write to an output register in 83.5 percent of 269,250 accepted programs, no live effect beyond Q1's; register-set collapse 0; the 0.98 floor is live in the tail (0.9811 at 256 units, 0.9814 at 2^20 seen) |
| Row 90 (owner adv-accept-3, unspawned; claimed) | 10,000 seeds: rejection by part (a') 83.3, (a) 11.7, (b) 3.1, (c'') 1.1, the rest under 1 percent; per-candidate rejection 0.6787 flat across attempts; P(exhaust) 8e-44; 0 exhaustions; the last resort reachable only by a rule that rejects everything (plant fired) and then accepted as drawn; the second 10,000 queued |
| BLOCKED | per-card hash-rate confirmation of any gain (no GPU tonight); priced analytically against chip-model-v3.md |
| Partial, named as partial | 182,646 of 10^6 seeds; 34 of the stand-in tail and 20 random measured live; row 90 at 10,000 of 20,000; the 2^20 read of seed 3664 and the live attribution of the clean deep seeds not taken further |
| What a longer pass adds | the other 82 percent of the 10^6 seeds, the 2^20 ratio (not the 256-unit proxy) as the ranking, and a live row for every seed under 0.985 at 2^20: more rows of the same three shapes, not a different answer unless a seed reads a hot set over 1 percent of reads, which 182,646 draws and 54 live rows did not produce. The open design question is adv-cache-2's: the stride rotation that lets a product's low bits into the item index, a load_index change rather than a floor |
| Partial, named as partial | 269,250 of 10^6 seeds; 34 of the stand-in tail and 20 random measured live; row 90 at 10,000 of 20,000; the 2^20 read of seed 3664 and the live attribution of the clean deep seeds not taken further |
| What a longer pass adds | the other 73 percent of the 10^6 seeds, the 2^20 ratio (not the 256-unit proxy) as the ranking, and a live row for every seed under 0.985 at 2^20: more rows of the same three shapes, not a different answer unless a seed reads a hot set over 1 percent of reads, which 269,250 draws and 54 live rows did not produce. The open design question is adv-cache-2's: the stride rotation that lets a product's low bits into the item index, a load_index change rather than a floor |
## Running notes