diff --git a/docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md b/docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md index 17ca36803..cca958f68 100644 --- a/docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md +++ b/docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md @@ -193,7 +193,7 @@ programs gave X_0.1% = 0.155%. If the tail scales as the extreme of the populati times that, still under 1% of reads. The census over consecutive seeds (random accepted programs) says how often the hot-set test fires in the population; that number lands below. -### The selector's base rate (final for tonight, rows read at 23:50 BST: 182,646 accepted programs, 43 shard files de-duplicated by seed) +### The selector's base rate (rows read at 01:08 BST, 8 October: 269,250 accepted programs, 46 shard files de-duplicated by seed) The stand-in per-site ratio at 256 units, over every accepted program (one row per seed; every seed of the F8 label space yields an accepted program through the chain draw): @@ -204,18 +204,19 @@ F8 label space yields an accepted program through the chain draw): | Threshold | Programs under it | Tries per hit | |---|---|---| -| ratio < 0.9990 | 1,070 of 182,646 | 1 in 171 | -| ratio < 0.9980 (the lowest 25 measured live sat at or under this) | 170 | 1 in 1,074 | -| ratio < 0.9970 | 75 | 1 in 2,435 | -| ratio < 0.9960 | 44 | 1 in 4,151 | -| ratio < 0.9950 | 11 | 1 in 16,604 | +| ratio < 0.9990 | 1,567 of 269,250 | 1 in 172 | +| ratio < 0.9980 (the lowest 25 measured live sat at or under this) | 271 | 1 in 994 | +| ratio < 0.9970 | 119 | 1 in 2,263 | +| ratio < 0.9960 | 70 | 1 in 3,846 | +| ratio < 0.9950 | 17 | 1 in 15,838 | -Over the 182,646: accepted attempt 0..11 = 58,570, 40,057, 26,604, 18,229, 12,685, 8,439, 5,760, 3,956, -2,686, 1,798, 1,185, 829; max 31; mean 2.124; last-resort programs 0; a lossy last write to an output -register in 152,492 (83.5 percent); register-set collapse 0. The eight lowest (148927 at 0.9811, 122960, -130488, 150347, 19921, 29307, 34501, 600738 at 0.9930) are all measured live and at 2^20 (rows above and in -the floor table): two concentrate live (122960 a hot set, 29307 a single hot item), six are clean live and -are the floor's false refusals. +Over the 269,250: accepted attempt 0..11 = 86,535, 58,888, 39,382, 26,829, 18,609, 12,389, 8,531, 5,805, +3,937, 2,683, 1,764, 1,216; max 32; mean 2.121; last-resort programs 0; a lossy last write to an output +register in 224,724 (83.5 percent); register-set collapse 0. Of the ten lowest (148927 at 0.9811, 228763 +at 0.9820, 638990 at 0.9879, 122960, 130488, 150347, 19921, 29307, 623492 at 0.9921, 34501), seven are +measured live and at 2^20 (two concentrate live: 122960 a hot set, 29307 a single hot item; five are clean +live, the floor's false refusals) and three surfaced after the 23:50 count (228763, 638990, 623492) and are +queued live and at 2^20. Cost of the selector: one chain draw per try (about 3 s of one core: the accepted attempt's 2^20 ratio pass dominates) plus a 256-unit ratio read (milliseconds). A seed-steering attacker who can choose among epoch @@ -827,20 +828,20 @@ kept, frontier 849304) and sweep-s06c (40,679 rows kept, frontier 652538); my tw withdrawn so they do not take the freed cores; sweep-s02e (23 cores) left running. The four shards re-queue from their frontiers once the v5 runs hold cores (or after 20 minutes). -## Where the pass stands: the 00:00 BST reading (count and pool state at 23:50 BST) +## Where the pass stands: the 00:00 BST reading (count refreshed 01:08 BST, 8 October; pool state at 23:50 BST) | Item | Reading | |---|---| | Box-hours spent (running time, both boxes, nice 10; pod-hours 0, no GPU, no pod) | about 5.5: the two 88-thread shards for 1.9 h of wall under contention until the 20:21 kill, then shards at 32 or fewer cores through the lease pool with repeated releases to the class v5 work (every release by pgid file, rows kept, re-queued from the recorded frontier); two adv-live confirmation chains, the 10^6-nonce census (51 programs), 34 live rows at 2^24 of the stand-in tail plus 20 random, the gap tool on 61 programs plus 17 decisive 2^20 reads, row 90 on 10,000 seeds, the class v5 exemplar check | -| Q1, the bypass: bound reached | 182,646 distinct accepted programs drawn through the chain path by 23:50 BST (18 percent of the 10^6 planned; 43 shard files de-duplicated by seed; at 23:50 three shards of mine held 87 cores on build-2 and the rest waited: build-1's pool stayed held by attack-pass from 20:42 on, so row 90's second half and four shards never ran there). Eight pass every part of the rule and flag the f8 hot-set test on the LIVE dataset at 2^24 nonces (100767, 4346, 5245, 1738, 170, 106924, 107022, 122960: X_0.1% +0.102 to +0.221 percent, 1.54x to 2.24x over the window model), all eight in the lowest 34 stand-in-ratio seeds; 20 random accepted programs: 1 beyond the f8 gate, 0 hot sets. Every hot set is the top 0.1 percent of items (about 1 MB) holding 0.26 to 0.41 percent of reads against 0.15 expected: an on-die copy saves under 0.3 percent of DRAM reads, gain 1.002x at the largest; no row of chip-model-v3.md moves. Mechanism: a load site whose source reaches zero or all-ones (or one bit off) in hundredths of a percent of evaluations, under the (c') 1 percent limit, mapped by the era stride to one fixed item (item 0x000000 the hottest in four); two further shapes seen (a low-entropy band without saturation; one constant image from a non-saturated source, seed 29307). The exemplar reads the same hot set under the class v5 dataset (the pre-floor draw) | +| Q1, the bypass: bound reached | 269,250 distinct accepted programs drawn through the chain path by 01:08 BST (27 percent of the 10^6 planned; 46 shard files de-duplicated by seed; 182,646 at the 23:50 reading; at 23:50 three shards of mine held 87 cores on build-2 and the rest waited: build-1's pool stayed held by attack-pass from 20:42 on, so row 90's second half and four shards never ran there). Eight pass every part of the rule and flag the f8 hot-set test on the LIVE dataset at 2^24 nonces (100767, 4346, 5245, 1738, 170, 106924, 107022, 122960: X_0.1% +0.102 to +0.221 percent, 1.54x to 2.24x over the window model), all eight in the lowest 34 stand-in-ratio seeds; 20 random accepted programs: 1 beyond the f8 gate, 0 hot sets. Every hot set is the top 0.1 percent of items (about 1 MB) holding 0.26 to 0.41 percent of reads against 0.15 expected: an on-die copy saves under 0.3 percent of DRAM reads, gain 1.002x at the largest; no row of chip-model-v3.md moves. Mechanism: a load site whose source reaches zero or all-ones (or one bit off) in hundredths of a percent of evaluations, under the (c') 1 percent limit, mapped by the era stride to one fixed item (item 0x000000 the hottest in four); two further shapes seen (a low-entropy band without saturation; one constant image from a non-saturated source, seed 29307). The exemplar reads the same hot set under the class v5 dataset (the pre-floor draw) | | Q1 against the class v5 per-site floor at 0.995 | all 8 live hot sets refused (minimum sites 0.9821 to 0.9919 at the acceptance's own 2^20 sample); 3 mild concentrations missed (Devnet 3 epoch 0 site 0 at 0.9992, adv-cache-2's era-fixed-20 at 0.9997 and era-drawn-2 at 0.9992: about 1.0004x to a chip, adv-cache-2's rotation class); 6 clean-live programs refused and 1 clean passed among the 9 deepest 256-unit seeds (the floor's 2.4 percent clean rejection) | | The selector | the 256-unit stand-in ratio enriches the live gate 13x (17 beyond of the lowest 25 against 1 of 20 random) and finds the hot sets (8 of 34 against 0 of 20), with false positives 8 of 25 on the gate and 26 of 34 on the hot-set test; below 0.995 it is not sampling noise but a different fact: a low ratio is a thin spread of repeated indices, not a hot set. The 2^20 ratio the rule computes is the real selector; one chain draw costs about 3 s of one core and a seed under 0.998 costs about 1,000 draws | | Q2, the stand-in gap: bound reached | 54 programs plus 17 decisive reads: closed-form and live per-site ratios agree to 0.0004 at 2^20 (the sampling noise), 0 verdict disagreements, (c) metrics agree to 0.019 of 128; the zero-dataset plant fires. No steering through the gap | -| Q5, distinguishers | a lossy last write to an output register in 83.5 percent of 182,646 accepted programs, no live effect beyond Q1's; register-set collapse 0; the 0.98 floor is live in the tail (0.9811 at 256 units, 0.9814 at 2^20 seen) | +| Q5, distinguishers | a lossy last write to an output register in 83.5 percent of 269,250 accepted programs, no live effect beyond Q1's; register-set collapse 0; the 0.98 floor is live in the tail (0.9811 at 256 units, 0.9814 at 2^20 seen) | | Row 90 (owner adv-accept-3, unspawned; claimed) | 10,000 seeds: rejection by part (a') 83.3, (a) 11.7, (b) 3.1, (c'') 1.1, the rest under 1 percent; per-candidate rejection 0.6787 flat across attempts; P(exhaust) 8e-44; 0 exhaustions; the last resort reachable only by a rule that rejects everything (plant fired) and then accepted as drawn; the second 10,000 queued | | BLOCKED | per-card hash-rate confirmation of any gain (no GPU tonight); priced analytically against chip-model-v3.md | -| Partial, named as partial | 182,646 of 10^6 seeds; 34 of the stand-in tail and 20 random measured live; row 90 at 10,000 of 20,000; the 2^20 read of seed 3664 and the live attribution of the clean deep seeds not taken further | -| What a longer pass adds | the other 82 percent of the 10^6 seeds, the 2^20 ratio (not the 256-unit proxy) as the ranking, and a live row for every seed under 0.985 at 2^20: more rows of the same three shapes, not a different answer unless a seed reads a hot set over 1 percent of reads, which 182,646 draws and 54 live rows did not produce. The open design question is adv-cache-2's: the stride rotation that lets a product's low bits into the item index, a load_index change rather than a floor | +| Partial, named as partial | 269,250 of 10^6 seeds; 34 of the stand-in tail and 20 random measured live; row 90 at 10,000 of 20,000; the 2^20 read of seed 3664 and the live attribution of the clean deep seeds not taken further | +| What a longer pass adds | the other 73 percent of the 10^6 seeds, the 2^20 ratio (not the 256-unit proxy) as the ranking, and a live row for every seed under 0.985 at 2^20: more rows of the same three shapes, not a different answer unless a seed reads a hot set over 1 percent of reads, which 269,250 draws and 54 live rows did not produce. The open design question is adv-cache-2's: the stride rotation that lets a product's low bits into the item index, a load_index change rather than a floor | ## Running notes