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igneum-labs 62941ae627 Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 
Utility curves for IGN beyond gas with dollar inputs labelled; the proving price as the
forgone subsidy (1 / network hash) against Boundless's published rate; the adopted job floor
overprices the market above about USD 0.014 per IGN; a ten-year security budget with the
measured 5090 row (sustained hash USD 24.8 per GH/s-day against USD 281 rented, so the 20-day
34 percent weight attack costs 11.8x the honest fleet at every price); sim/economy re-run with
the eleven measured cards under eight stresses (T1 to T5 hold; a ten-day prover refusal strands
547,570 IGN a day of pool credit in the escrow with no rule to return it); the dev fee, the
signalling game, and the twelve-row table of what Kaspa, Monero, Ethereum and the zk rollups
did (rusty-kaspa cited by file and line).

Models: sim/horizon/economy-and-utility/ (utility.py, stress.py, security_budget_10y.py,
signal_game.py, devfee.py, results/).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00
..
results Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00
devfee.py Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00
devfee_out.md Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00
README.md Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00
security_budget_10y.py Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00
security_budget_10y_out.md Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00
signal_game.py Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00
signal_game_out.md Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00
stress.py Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00
utility.py Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00
utility_out.md Horizon: lane 4 (economy-and-utility) lands: the proving price is h/N, fees are no security budget, the stranded pool 2026-10-06 20:08:32 +00:00

README.md

sim/horizon/economy-and-utility

Models behind docs/analysis/horizon/economy-and-utility.md (Horizon lane 4, 6 October 2026). Python 3.10, numpy only for stress.py.

File What Run
utility.py Task 1: proving supply cost per measured card (alone, beside the miner, rented), the published prices it competes with, demand curves (a) to (e) with dollars per day and burn at launch, year 2, year 5 under low/base/high and three IGN prices, proof storage python3 utility.py > utility_out.md (arithmetic, no lock)
stress.py Task 2: sim/economy/sim.py with the eleven measured cards, the measured rental price for the farm, the 25-s window and 120-s timeout, a FIFO backlog with the 600-s record window (stranded pool credit), burn per day; scenarios a, p10, pd10, c, x100, cartel, refuse, halving (b, d, e, f kept) /Users/joshm/Projects/igneum/tools/lock/with-lock.sh run nice -n 19 python3 stress.py --seeds 3 > results/stress_main.md (about 20 s a run on the M5 Max)
security_budget_10y.py Task 3: ten years of subsidy, pool, fees (utility.py section 4), the hash the subsidy sustains at the measured card economics, the 34% weight attack in rented hash at USD 281 per GH/s-day, the audit lines against the entity's income python3 security_budget_10y.py > security_budget_10y_out.md
signal_game.py Task 5: the 60/90/95 thresholds, forcing and blocking costs, the 30% pool, signal-then-defect by what is signalled python3 signal_game.py > signal_game_out.md
devfee.py Task 4: the Ember dev fee in dollars by year, price and the share of miners who keep it on; per tier python3 devfee.py > devfee_out.md
results/ The stress runs as they ran tonight (stress_main.md: 8 scenarios x 3 seeds; stress_busy.md: 3 shards a block; stress_elecfarm.md: the farm on electricity instead of rent; its renter farm margin row printed a division by zero rent and is blank in the current script)

Every input is labelled in the script (measured, cited, designed, approximate). Nothing here is a price prediction.