igneum/sim
igneum-labs a718d8e3af Horizon: lanes 2 (algorithm), 7 (frontier) and 8 (new-pow designs) land, with the summary skeleton
the project lead's 6 October 2026 ask: deep backward and forward research across the hash, finality,
economy, network and every shipped surface. This commit carries the first three lanes.

- docs/analysis/horizon/algorithm.md: the chip model on the 6 October numbers (f = 1 GDDR7
  chip 5.7x per joule against the 5090 at class v3, 2.1x at class v4 with k = 1), the FPGA
  lane tightened to 0.30x to 0.47x per watt, the reserve R0 to R8, the reconciled shadow-N
  ladder (section 5.3a) with HBM4 and three verifier brackets, the first measured verifier
  proxy on igneum-build-1 (class v4 5.06 ms cold, dr736 10.51: out), the dataset schedule
  to 2030; model sim/horizon/algorithm/model.py.
- docs/analysis/horizon/frontier.md: sixteen ideas ranked by payoff over difficulty with the
  Monero and Kaspa attacks, prior art cited, the honest never column; model
  sim/horizon/frontier/frontier_model.py.
- docs/analysis/horizon/new-pow.md sections 0 to 4: three new proof-of-work schemes defined,
  reviewed in two personas, scheme A (mining is proving) ruled out on bytes and
  sampleability, B and C in prototype on two rented 4090s; measured rows follow.
- docs/analysis/horizon-2026-10.md: the summary skeleton and the lane table.

Every rental cost cites docs/bench-log.md "Rental cost of hash, 6 October 2026".

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-10-06 19:51:23 +00:00
..
difficulty CI identity grep: .log files get the generic scrub too; the 4 October difficulty record carried a home path (every master run red since c01b954) 2026-10-04 19:09:09 +00:00
economy FUD ledger sweep, round 1: 63 entries reconciled with the day's evidence, the security-budget grid and the launch-month arithmetic 2026-10-04 22:39:54 +00:00
horizon Horizon: lanes 2 (algorithm), 7 (frontier) and 8 (new-pow designs) land, with the summary skeleton 2026-10-06 19:51:23 +00:00
finality_sim.py Igneum: design docs, Metal lottery-hash prototype, CUDA test pack, finality simulation 2026-10-03 15:06:01 +00:00
finality_v2.py Finality rule v3 (ledger F21, F22): simulator scenario M, spec 03 Q4/Q5, cloud vote-timing analysis, v3 harness runner, fast-time profile, bench-log entry, devnet rollout plan 2026-10-04 20:04:12 +00:00
README.md Finality rule V2 simulation: latency, partitions, eclipses; active denominator fails the partition test, floor 0.85 hybrid recommended 2026-10-03 16:10:16 +00:00
results.md Igneum: design docs, Metal lottery-hash prototype, CUDA test pack, finality simulation 2026-10-03 15:06:01 +00:00
results_v2.md Finality rule v3 (ledger F21, F22): simulator scenario M, spec 03 Q4/Q5, cloud vote-timing analysis, v3 harness runner, fast-time profile, bench-log entry, devnet rollout plan 2026-10-04 20:04:12 +00:00

sim

Simulations of Igneum consensus rules. One script per rule, results next to it.

finality_sim.py

Simulates the sustained-mining finality vote-weight rule: each key's weight is the sum over the trailing 30 days of its counted blocks, where a day's counted blocks are capped at 2x the previous day's counted blocks plus a floor f. A checkpoint locks at two thirds of total weight. Scenarios A to F (steady state, rental burst, key splitting, honest growth shock, churn, patient owner) are described in results.md together with the model's assumptions and the measured numbers.

Requirements: Python 3, numpy (checked present: 3.10.10, numpy 2.2.6 on 3 October 2026).

Run everything (about one second):

python3 finality_sim.py > out.md

Options:

--seed N          random seed, default 7 (seed 11 gives the same crossing days)
--scenarios A,B   subset of A,B,C,D,E,F
--floors 1,10     floor values in blocks per key per day, default 1,10,100,1000
--growth 2.0      daily cap multiplier (1e9 removes the cap)
--window 30       trailing window in days
--committee 100   committee size, used only for the active-24-hour total in E
--presence 0      proposed presence gate, 0 = off (tested and rejected in results.md)

The runs behind results.md:

python3 finality_sim.py
python3 finality_sim.py --growth 1e9 --scenarios B --floors 1
python3 finality_sim.py --presence 20 --scenarios C,D
python3 finality_sim.py --seed 11 --scenarios A,B --floors 1,1000

Output is markdown tables on stdout. Days in B to E are counted from the event, so "+1" is the first full day after the burst, the doubling or the churn.

Model limits are listed at the end of results.md: no latency, no DAG, no VRF sampling noise, instant difficulty retarget, free keys.

finality_v2.py

Simulates FINALITY RULE V2 (CLAUDE.md, review round 2): flat 30-day weight window, no damping, dust threshold 100 blocks, a checkpoint every 30 blocks, every voter signs every checkpoint, lock at 2/3 of the ACTIVE denominator (weight x participation over a 240-checkpoint presence window) compared against the TOTAL denominator. Unlike finality_sim.py it steps one 30-s slot at a time and models regions with message delay, uptime, partitions (each side forms its own checkpoints and certificates, merged at the heal with conflicting locks counted), an eclipsed pool, and equivocation stripping. The DAG stays abstract: every block is blue, a side's checkpoint block at index i is the block at blue score 30i in that side's view.

Three readings of "participation" are selectable with --pmode inside the script (the scenarios run all three where it matters): cert (the brief, an uncertified index credits nobody), seen (an uncertified index credits the keys whose votes were observed), frozen (the window is over certified indices only). Scenarios A to G and every assumption are in results_v2.md.

Requirements: Python 3, numpy (3.10.10, numpy 2.2.6 on 3 October 2026).

Run everything (about five minutes):

python3 finality_v2.py > out_v2.md

Options:

--seed N            random seed, default 7
--scenarios A,E     subset of A,B,C,D,E,F,G
--delay 2.0         one-way inter-region delay in seconds for the main runs (A also sweeps 0.5, 2, 5)
--grace 15          seconds after a checkpoint during which late votes still enter the certificate
--quick             shortened runs for development

The runs behind results_v2.md:

python3 finality_v2.py
python3 finality_v2.py --seed 11 --scenarios B,E

Timing output goes to stderr, tables to stdout. Minutes in C to F are wall minutes after the event.