igneum/docs/analysis
igneum-josh 59441ccbd7 Class v6 research lane B: the hardware future, five years out (first cut and the full report in one file)
docs/analysis/class-v6/hardware-future.md: one table over PIM and PNM (HBM-PIM, AiM, LPDDR5X-PIM, UPMEM), HBM3E, HBM4 and the custom HBM4E base die, fine-grained DRAM on logic, LPDDR6, 3D DRAM, RLDRAM 3 and Folded Banks, FPGA with HBM2e, wafer-scale, CXL, optical I/O, chiplets and UCIe, and SRAM at N2: energy per dependent read, latency, cost per GB, availability to a non-hyperscaler, the k_read and shadow k bands, the edge per joule at zero shadow against the 5090 and the M5 Max, and the one layer of the four that blunts each with a number. The three findings: a 2 GiB SRAM full store on one N2 reticle is the strongest five-year chip (13x to 17x per joule, about USD 0.3 per MH/s) and no layer reaches it (layer 2 moves its capex, not its joules; the shadow at k = 0.5 holds 4.8x); per-bank PIM is blind (1.6 percent of reads in-bank at 2 GiB) and the custom HBM4E base die is the f = 1 chip with its controller in the stack (6.5x to 14x), untouched by layers 1 to 4; the denominator is the wrong card (the M5 Max at 0.78 microjoules halves to thirds every chip edge). Section 5 carries the k bands for the research lane's chip rows; section 7 the four decisions with defaults and deadlines; section 9 the sources with URLs and dates. tools/ci/export-exclude.txt: docs/analysis/class-v6 is research, not public export.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-10-08 11:17:50 +01:00
..
attack-pass attack-pass lane (d): F1 shadow redundancy on the frozen class v5 tip 1c420786, 10^5 programs, max 4.688 percent, 0 mismatches, PASS (the 0.3.24 gate line; AP-F1-1 FIXED-AND-PASSED on v5) 2026-10-08 05:22:29 +01:00
class-v6 Class v6 research lane B: the hardware future, five years out (first cut and the full report in one file) 2026-10-08 11:17:50 +01:00
horizon Chip model 5.11 and new-pow 5.1: the per-MAC figures corrected by the per-lane tile count (32 MACs per tile, not 1,024; the 4090's 0.056 pJ is 1.8 pJ, the 5090 reads 2.9 and 1.5 at the shadow's premium), the tensor-tile column withdrawn (a chip's k on tile work 0.03 to 0.3, below the ALU shadow's); Counter ASIC 3.0 status: the microbench's correction, the night's closing sentence on measured rows, the CA4 file's commits 2026-10-08 07:08:07 +01:00
mission Merge scrub b5ced6e2 into master (gate: green on b5ced6e2, recorded by tools/ci/pre-push.sh; landed on the box mirror under the exception declared by main: main's ruling, 7 Oct 2026 19:5x UK: the GitHub account is suspended, lanes land on the box mirror's master, the box gate stamp is the verdict; GitHub gets the fast-forward when it answers) 2026-10-07 20:28:40 +01:00
51-percent.md Horizon: lane 1 (consensus-security) lands, with the 51 percent paper 2026-10-06 21:07:43 +01:00
amd-proving.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
asic-resistance-history.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
attack-pass-2026-10.md attack-pass: the status board, F8 row, gate line and re-gate paragraph read the tail as attributed 2026-10-08 09:49:21 +01:00
base-fee-floor.md Prover mirrors the fee switch: both tables and fees_v1_activation_daa in the shard input, guest re-pinned, devnet runbook for H = 210,000 2026-10-05 17:24:35 +01:00
block-rate-devnet2.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
ca3-v4-uniform.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
card-lifetime-2026-10-05.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
chip-model-v3.md Chip model 5.11 and new-pow 5.1: the per-MAC figures corrected by the per-lane tile count (32 MACs per tile, not 1,024; the 4090's 0.056 pJ is 1.8 pJ, the 5090 reads 2.9 and 1.5 at the shadow's premium), the tensor-tile column withdrawn (a chip's k on tile work 0.03 to 0.3, below the ALU shadow's); Counter ASIC 3.0 status: the microbench's correction, the night's closing sentence on measured rows, the CA4 file's commits 2026-10-08 07:08:07 +01:00
ci-failures-2026-10-06.md Pre-public scrub, second pass (7 October 2026, 20:0x UK, main's rulings 2 and 4): the public tree names igneum-labs only; the public ledger generated from the full ledger 2026-10-07 19:56:08 +01:00
difficulty-2026-10-03.md Difficulty: timestamp attack fixed in spec 2.3, simulator, analysis addendum, ledger M23 2026-10-04 00:56:20 +00:00
difficulty-2026-10-04-oscillation.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
economy-2026-10-04.md Economy: agent-based mining-versus-proving simulation, six stress scenarios, lever study, analysis and bench entry 2026-10-03 23:16:46 +00:00
era-vdf-2026-10-07.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
hashrate-decay-2026-10-03.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
hashrate-decay-2026-10-03.patch Hash-rate decay on the RTX 5090: diagnosis, Metal reproduction, proposed Seeder fix 2026-10-03 23:31:23 +00:00
horizon-2026-10.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
income-tiers.md Income per tier: the three tariffs are USD 0.05, 0.10 and 0.25 a kWh (cheap industrial, US retail, UK retail; the coordinator's answer, 7 October 2026), the table regenerated, the cost per mined IGN shown to three significant figures 2026-10-07 09:54:44 +01:00
int8-matrix-family.md Counter ASIC 2.0 layer 7: RTX 5090 and RX 9070 XT dot4 numbers from PC 1 (job run-dot4-20261005): dp4a 7.45 T/s on the 5090 via inline PTX, v_dot4_i32_iu8 0.66 T/s on the 9070 XT via the clang builtin in Adrenalin OpenCL C, signed emulation 7.1x / 1.46x / 4.7x the ALU step on NVIDIA / AMD / Apple; no PC platform lists cl_khr_integer_dot_product 2026-10-05 20:31:33 +00:00
latency-shadow-2026-10-06.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
m16-recompute-attacker-2026-10-05.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
prover-floor.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
prover-tiers-real-cards.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
proving-methods.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
scratch-soundness.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
security-budget.md Evidence page, end-to-end proving standard, funding plan, security-budget stress, payment routes 2026-10-03 22:35:03 +00:00
sram-mirror.md Pre-public scrub, the text pass (7 October 2026, 19:5x UK): no founder name, personal login, earlier business or personal address in any tracked text file, and a gate check that keeps it so 2026-10-07 19:39:50 +01:00
weak-program-census-2026-10-03.md Mac app: dial the public seed node first, the home node second 2026-10-03 22:28:58 +00:00