in-house-pass.md: adv-accept Q2 BOUND and the widened selector read on the board

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>

docs/plans/cryptanalysis/in-house-pass.md

@@ -160,7 +160,7 @@ It is not an independent review and is never called one. Nothing is sent outside
 | adv-cache | 476e4516, 19:04 BST | 2c7bb6b4, 19:33 BST; FINAL 49ef7747, 19:50 BST: every row BOUND, every plant fired (the recompute curve monotone toward the full store, f = 1/2 at 1.26x the ops and 0.875x of the full-store chip's rate under equal silicon; no cheaper fill; chain avalanche full at every j; line index uniform over 160 day keys and about 1.6 x 10^10 reads; batching loses to the stride store from 32 MiB) | 19:5x BST, NO DISPUTE: Q1b, Q1c and Q4 stand as BOUND from the defender (the curve equals logs/queue-a/curve.log row for row; target 017e7037; ledger honest; energy columns from chip-model-v3 5.2); Q2 and Q3 were measured before the re-scope and stand as readings for adv-cache-2 to confirm or contradict, not as its verdict | 0.55 |
 | adv-cache-2 | 3d9bcece, 19:31 BST | first rows 19:5x BST (report being pushed): Q1 line census at 2^31 reads PASS (segments +4.84 sigma against a control at +4.24; top 1 percent of lines 1.1198 against 1.1196 percent); Q3 steering PASS (worst cell 3.95 sigma); Q2 Devnet 3 at 2^24 nonces: fingerprint e510ad92b4d24846 reproduced through its mirror, items and lines clear against the window-model control (1.003x), one load site (site 0, instruction 3) non-uniform at chi2/dof 1.67 and 1.29x at its top 0.1 percent, worth 0.03 percent of a hash's reads; the window layer puts 36 to 45 percent of reads in one aligned quarter (model exact to 4 digits), being priced against the chip model's partial rows | pending | |
 | adv-cache-3 | 9fdd4031, 19:49 BST | pending; its three definitions (90 to 92) claimed 19:49:54 BST, by itself on the timing (owner files were not yet the rule); adv-cache offers its chain-skip, pebble and ffrel implementations on branch adv-cache as a harness, and does not run them | pending | |
-| adv-accept | d2bc4dc8, 19:1x BST | a22d5ba0, 19:51 BST, FINDING-class row: one accepted class v4 program (F8 label-space seed 100767, id 9d68e6286fc817d4, attempt 2) passes every part of the frozen rule and flags the f8 hot-set gate on the live dataset at 2^24 nonces (X at 0.1 percent +0.155, X/f 1.55, top 0.1 percent at 2.05x the window model, 6-sigma +295); the four lowest stand-in-ratio seeds of 4,600 accepted programs all beyond 1.2x live (1.29x to 2.05x), 23 random accepted programs at most 1.043x; attribution one load site (instruction 23, source r6, quarter window) sending 3.35 percent of its reads to items at multiples of 2^19, (c') saturation 0.013 percent there; the lane's price: a 1 MB hot copy serves 0.31 percent of loads instead of 0.15, a 1.002x gain, no chip-model row moves; "a real distinguisher and a cheap seed selector, not an exploitable bypass". Q2 stand-in gap BOUND so far (agreement to 2e-4 at 2^20 on 4 programs plus a firing plant; 50-program widening running). Row 90 (adv-accept-3's attempts census) claimed and running |  19:5x BST, FINDING CONFIRMED, bounded, no dispute on the numbers (read against live-confirm-16m.log): (c'') passes at ratio 0.9988, inside the clean spread, the shape of the four-seed tail AP-F8-1 left unattributed; the source is zero in 0.0126 percent of evaluations (under (c')'s 1 percent) and the hot items are the images of small source values under the era stride; the class is a value-level constant from a lineage-fresh writer (a mad at instruction 4), which neither the lineage rule nor the per-site ratio at 2^20 reaches. NEW and the finding's substance: the stand-in ratio is a cheap seed selector without the live dataset, and one member of the unattributed tail is now attributed by value. Routing: FINDING (bounded) on class v4 sub-version 3, no change to the frozen object, chip gain nil; the fix question (a value-level source test at the live-dataset scale, or a per-site hot-item test in acceptance) goes to class v5 / 0.3.23 beside AP-F4-1 and AP-F1-1; taken to main as an exception. Asked of the lane's final: the selector's false-positive rate over at least 20 low-ratio seeds; whether the seed reads hot under class v5's state-derived dataset | about 1.6 |
+| adv-accept | d2bc4dc8, 19:1x BST | a22d5ba0, 19:51 BST, FINDING-class row: one accepted class v4 program (F8 label-space seed 100767, id 9d68e6286fc817d4, attempt 2) passes every part of the frozen rule and flags the f8 hot-set gate on the live dataset at 2^24 nonces (X at 0.1 percent +0.155, X/f 1.55, top 0.1 percent at 2.05x the window model, 6-sigma +295); the four lowest stand-in-ratio seeds of 4,600 accepted programs all beyond 1.2x live (1.29x to 2.05x), 23 random accepted programs at most 1.043x; attribution one load site (instruction 23, source r6, quarter window) sending 3.35 percent of its reads to items at multiples of 2^19, (c') saturation 0.013 percent there; the lane's price: a 1 MB hot copy serves 0.31 percent of loads instead of 0.15, a 1.002x gain, no chip-model row moves; "a real distinguisher and a cheap seed selector, not an exploitable bypass". Q2 stand-in gap BOUND so far (agreement to 2e-4 at 2^20 on 4 programs plus a firing plant; 50-program widening running). 20:06 BST, tip 12e0e9fa: Q2 BOUND landed on 54 accepted programs (closed-form and live per-site ratios agree to 0.0004 at 2^20, mean min-ratio gap 0.00002, 0 verdict disagreements, (c) metrics agree to 0.019 of 128; no steering through the stand-in gap); the selector read widened and honest: of the 8 lowest-ratio seeds measured live, 6 beyond the 1.2x gate and 2 not (103378 at 1.157x, 105756 at 0.9996x), so the 256-unit stand-in ratio is a noisy selector at the 0.996 level; random control 0 of 4 beyond (max 1.0034x); 17 lowest and 16 random rows running at about 7 minutes each; the class v5 exemplar check and the repeated-index read queued behind the lock. Row 90 (adv-accept-3's attempts census) claimed and running |  19:5x BST, FINDING CONFIRMED, bounded, no dispute on the numbers (read against live-confirm-16m.log): (c'') passes at ratio 0.9988, inside the clean spread, the shape of the four-seed tail AP-F8-1 left unattributed; the source is zero in 0.0126 percent of evaluations (under (c')'s 1 percent) and the hot items are the images of small source values under the era stride; the class is a value-level constant from a lineage-fresh writer (a mad at instruction 4), which neither the lineage rule nor the per-site ratio at 2^20 reaches. NEW and the finding's substance: the stand-in ratio is a cheap seed selector without the live dataset, and one member of the unattributed tail is now attributed by value. Routing: FINDING (bounded) on class v4 sub-version 3, no change to the frozen object, chip gain nil; the fix question (a value-level source test at the live-dataset scale, or a per-site hot-item test in acceptance) goes to class v5 / 0.3.23 beside AP-F4-1 and AP-F1-1; taken to main as an exception. Asked of the lane's final: the selector's false-positive rate over at least 20 low-ratio seeds; whether the seed reads hot under class v5's state-derived dataset | about 1.6 |
 | adv-accept-2 | 9b86d4e2, 19:4x BST | pending; reading from the code: the header reaches the hash only through the init words (bind.rs) and never the program or the dataset, so a found header fixes one 32-lane group and a grind cannot amortise; GPU per-card confirmation BLOCKED, bound analytic | pending | |
 | adv-accept-3 | spawned 19:5x BST after three attempts at the subagent cap; plan due one hour after | owns 91 and 92; reads 90 from adv-accept | pending | |