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adv-accept report: widened live rows, partial: the selector has false positives (2 of the next 3 lowest are within 1.2x)

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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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igneum-labs 2026-10-07 19:05:18 +00:00
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25
docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md
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@ -287,11 +287,26 @@ sweep's ratio column already locates (rows under 0.9810 at 256 units, then a 2^2
105915, 5133, 1932, 2328, 3665, 101643, 1352, 100521, 106359, 4905, 102519, 101697, 106740, 327, 1180,
101805; ratios 0.9994 to 0.9999), log live-random20-16m.log: the control for the correlation.
| Seed | stand-in ratio (256 u) | live top 0.1% over window model | X_0.1% (X/f) | 6-sigma | hot set |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3664 (lowest) | 0.9945 | 1.31x BEYOND | | FLAGGED | clear |
| 4107 (random) | 0.9999 | 1.0004x within | | clear | clear |
| (rows land as the runs end) | | | | | |
| Seed | stand-in ratio (256 u) | live top 0.1% over window model | X_0.1% (X/f) | hot set |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3664 (lowest of 16,337) | 0.9945 | 1.311x BEYOND | +0.074% (0.74) | clear |
| 103378 | 0.9960 | 1.157x within | +0.028% (0.28) | clear |
| 105756 | 0.9960 | 0.9996x within | -0.000% (0.00) | clear |
| 4107 (random) | 0.9999 | 1.0004x within | +0.000% | clear |
| 101710 (random) | 0.9998 | 1.0034x within | +0.001% | clear |
| 101886 (random) | 0.9998 | 1.0000x within | +0.000% | clear |
| 6132 (random) | 0.9999 | 0.9996x within | -0.000% | clear |
| (17 lowest and 16 random rows land as the runs end, 20:0x BST) | | | | |
Partial reading at 20:05 BST, honestly: the selector has false positives. Of the 8 lowest-ratio seeds
measured live so far (the five first confirmed plus 3664, 103378, 105756), 6 are beyond the f8 1.2x gate and
2 are not (103378 at 1.157x, 105756 at 0.9996x, the latter indistinguishable from a random program). The
random control stands at 0 of 4 beyond. So the stand-in ratio at 256 units is a noisy selector: the five
seeds confirmed first sat at 0.9986 to 0.9988 and all were beyond; the next three sit LOWER (0.9945 to 0.9960)
and only one is beyond, which says the 256-unit read is itself noisy at the 0.996 level (one standard
deviation of a 65,536-evaluation distinct count is about 0.001 in the ratio), and a steering attacker would
use the 2^20 read (2.8 s per candidate) rather than the 256-unit one. The false-positive rate with its error
is the number this table gives at 25 rows.
### Class v5 check of the exemplar (PENDING the lock; the defender's question)