Consequences ledger: C15 closed with the S_p curve tiers; D2 recommendation re-cut to the measured tiers

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>

docs/plans/consequences-2026-10-05.md

@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ Rows already handled before this ledger opened, for the shape: 15.6 GB mine-and-
 | C12 | The v3 working set on Apple: 1,568 to 1,760 MiB today, 2,592 to 2,784 MiB at the 2 GiB genesis dataset, in unified memory shared with macOS; 2,048 launched warps x 128 KiB scratch | `docs/plans/hot-table.md` section 3 M5 Max row; era-layout section 3 | Apple silicon with 8 GB and 16 GB (the base Mac mini, MacBook Air) | An 8 GB Mac holds the miner's 2.6 GB beside macOS's 3 to 4 GB: it mines today and swaps at the first dataset growth step. The app has no gate on Metal's `recommendedMaxWorkingSetSize`; the site's "Any 4 GB card" has no Apple line. The CPU prover's RAM on a 16 GB Mac is unmeasured (the Settings switch lets it on) | The app reads `recommendedMaxWorkingSetSize` and refuses to mine (with the reason on the Mine tile) when the working set exceeds it; the site says "Mac: 8 GB or more"; the Apple scratch row at 128 KiB is measured in the readwidth table, not launched at 2,048 by assumption | miner UI adbf58b058186a18b; read-width (the Apple row) | in work (read-width: the scratch row's working set per card measured, Mac 1.5 to 1.9 GiB; the Metal footprint runs held the measure lock at 22:3x; miner UI: mining.gate_reason next cut) |
 | C13 | `/api/supply` `max_supply_ign` 4,000,000,000 against `minted_at_end_ign` about 3,963,000,000 (the ramp withholds about 37 M, the floors the rest); the live tables lack `number`, `tx_count`, `detail` until the observer restarts | `site/api/supply.mjs` 31 to 48; `docs/plans/explorer.md` "Open" | everyone who reads the explorer beside the homepage tile "4B IGN hard cap, ever" (`site/index.html` 386) | The tile says 4 billion and the explorer page says "of 4,000,000,000 by the rule" while the API's own end figure is 3.963 billion: a reader who adds the two columns finds 37 million missing. The explorer page shows "Circulating 0 IGN" on the devnet deployment until the observer restarts on the new code | The tile, the litepaper's supply line and the explorer carry "cap 4,000,000,000; about 3.96 billion ever minted" (the litepaper already says "approached and never reached"); the explorer does not go live before the observer restart lands the columns | explorer a76f60b415859b7b5; wording: Josh (D7, with D3) | closed (explorer 3e01212: the tile reads "cap 4,000,000,000, 3.96 billion ever minted, x% so far" with the withheld figure on hover; the homepage tile and litepaper wording stay with Josh, D3 and D7; the zero-circulating premise was sharper than stated, a 42703 failure not a null, now a 503 with the reason, and moot: the live observer restarted on the explorer code at 19:42:50Z, so the live tables carry the columns) |
 | C14 | The M16 mixer x4 decided into class v3 at 22:00 (coordinator): verifier 1.6 to 4.8 ms per warp against 0.441 ms today (0.87 cold), measurement running on branch ca2-mixer | coordinator's reply 21:5x; `docs/analysis/m16-recompute-attacker-2026-10-05.md` table; spec 09 section 9.8 item 5 | pool operators; every node (the Hetzner seeds, the observer, a 2019-class laptop); the 10 ms verify gate | At x4 one pool core verifies 200 to 600 shares a second instead of 2,270, so one core covers 2,000 to 6,000 members at one share per 10 s instead of 22,000; a block's CPU re-check and the miner's own `cpu re-check` of every found hash cost 4 to 11x; the seeds' small VMs verify every header at that cost; the gate's margin falls from 23x to 2 to 6x, which bounds Counter ASIC 3.0's room | The coordinator is adding the numbers to the ca2-mixer document and the status (said in reply); the reviewer checks at the next sweep that the pool-members-per-core and the seed-VM header-verify rows are there, and that the spec 09 figure 2,270 shares a second per core is re-cut with v3 | coordinator ada8afb62d752b1e2 | in work |
-| C15 | A full prototype shard peaks at 28.3 GB on sp1-gpu-server 6.8.1 (the sweep, proving agent 22:0x); an empty one 13.9 GB; no knob moves either floor | proving agent's reply; sweep job `memsweep-pc2-pv1` | 24 GB cards (4090, 7900-class if it had a path); the 5090 that mines and proves; the fleet table | A 24 GB card cannot prove a prototype full shard at all, mining or not; a 5090 mining (3.4 GB resident) plus a full shard is 31.7 GB against 31.8 GB, the edge. The 20 GB / 16 GB default rests on the empty-shard number. From H tomorrow the fleet proves v1 shards of 30,000 pgas (about 7 M cycles, a ninth of the prototype shard) whose peak is unmeasured; `proving/fixtures/fees-v1-shards2` and `-shards3` are that shape. The fleet table's "proving-only" rows are 32 GB-card rows until then; the litepaper's "12 GB" (D2) and the evidence row 16 fall with it | The sweep's last row is a v1-budget shard with and without the miner, and the provedefault gates are set from it before 0.3.11 ships default-on; the fleet table labels its rows by the card that fits | proving v1 | sent |
+| C15 | A full prototype shard peaks at 28.3 GB on sp1-gpu-server 6.8.1 (the sweep, proving agent 22:0x); an empty one 13.9 GB; no knob moves either floor | proving agent's reply; sweep job `memsweep-pc2-pv1` | 24 GB cards (4090, 7900-class if it had a path); the 5090 that mines and proves; the fleet table | A 24 GB card cannot prove a prototype full shard at all, mining or not; a 5090 mining (3.4 GB resident) plus a full shard is 31.7 GB against 31.8 GB, the edge. The 20 GB / 16 GB default rests on the empty-shard number. From H tomorrow the fleet proves v1 shards of 30,000 pgas (about 7 M cycles, a ninth of the prototype shard) whose peak is unmeasured; `proving/fixtures/fees-v1-shards2` and `-shards3` are that shape. The fleet table's "proving-only" rows are 32 GB-card rows until then; the litepaper's "12 GB" (D2) and the evidence row 16 fall with it | The sweep's last row is a v1-budget shard with and without the miner, and the provedefault gates are set from it before 0.3.11 ships default-on; the fleet table labels its rows by the card that fits | proving v1 | closed as measured (proving agent, the S_p curve, app default 440fd59): 32 GB mines and proves today (28.3 GB alone, 30.0 beside the miner); 24 GB proves the adopted 30,000-pgas shard (20.4 GB alone, about 22 GB beside the miner) from DAA 210,000 and nothing before it; 16 GB proves only empty shards alone (13.9 GB), nothing beside the miner (15.7 GB); 12 GB proves nothing on SP1 6.8.1; the default is on at 24 GB or more. Relayed to the rig installer and the HiveOS words sub-agent for their tables; until H tomorrow every prover on the devnet is a 32 GB card |
 | C16 | PC 2's app quit at 20:01:09Z ("aborted (the app is quitting)"), logged by the proving agent as "the app quit for the 0.3.10 update"; the shipper says nothing of 0.3.10 was published and no update-now of its exists (the live manifest is 0.3.9 from 17:59:14Z) | bench-log "proving v1" chain run 1; the shipper's reply 22:0x | every measurement on PC 2 that straddles 20:01Z (the prover-cost phase B ended 19:51Z, the chain re-run began 20:05Z, the readwidth 5090 job queued) | An app that quits for an unknown reason voids any number taken across it (CLAUDE.md: a number taken while another build or simulation ran is not a number; the same for a restart). The bench-log line names a cause that did not happen | The proving agent reads PC 2's app log for the quit reason at 20:01Z and corrects the bench-log line; if the cause is another agent's job or the auto-update, that agent's measurements across it are marked | proving v1 (the log read); the agent the cause names | closed in part (proving agent: PC 2 logged "quit: stopping the miners, then the node" at 20:01:09Z, a plain quit command 20 s after the efficiency sweep's administrator prompt was cancelled at the keyboard and 13 s after the live prover failed on a root-owned /tmp/sp1-cuda-0.sock left by the chain job; the bench-log line corrected; the quit's origin is not in the log, see C17) |
 | C17 | The chain job ran igneum-prove-host as root inside WSL2 and left a root-owned `/tmp/sp1-cuda-0.sock`; the live prover (the app's user) then failed with `CudaClientError: Connect(PermissionDenied)` at 20:00:56Z; the app quit at 20:01:09Z on a command whose source the log does not name | proving agent's reply 22:1x; PC 2's app log | every PC 2 measurement that shares the card with the live prover; every operator whose machine takes remote jobs | Two classes, not one bug. (1) Any job script that runs the SP1 server or the host as root in WSL2 breaks the live prover for every later shard until a reboot or a manual unlink; the proving agent fixed its own scripts (kill the server, remove the socket at the end), the class check (CLAUDE.md, 5 October: grep every script with the same shape, add a check that fails when the shape comes back) is not yet written. (2) A quit the log cannot attribute (job, UI, signal, update) voids the measurements around it and nobody can say who stopped a miner; the app logs "quit:" without a source | (1) `tools/ci/` gets a check that fails on any `.ps1` or `.sh` playbook that invokes `igneum-prove-host`, `sp1-gpu-server` or `wsl -u root` without the socket cleanup line, and the proving agent greps tonight's four PC 2 scripts; (2) the engine's quit log line carries its source (job id and playbook name, the UI, a signal, the updater) in the next app cut | proving v1 (1); coordinator for the next-cut list (2) | sent |
 

docs/plans/consequences-decisions.md

@@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ Sibling of `ledger-decisions.md`. Each is a consequence of a measured number tha
 | # | Row | What needs deciding | Recommendation | Why |
 |---|---|---|---|---|
 | D1 | C1 | The fee switch lands at H = 210,000 about 19:50Z on 6 October, and the 0.3.10 node's export does not carry the switch, so every app prover's shards are refused or vetoed from H. Move H, or race 0.3.11 onto every prover first | If 0.3.11 (with the proving-v1 fork, whose export carries `daaScore` and `feesV1ActivationDaa`) is not on every prover by 16:00Z on 6 October, republish the override with H = tip + 86,400 rounded to the next thousand, re-read the digest on a scratch node, every node in one sweep (the fee-switch plan's own rule for a later H). The coordinator holds the devnet delegation; this note is so the morning does not find proving dark | A dark proving pool on the devnet costs nothing on chain (the escrow keeps it) but every coverage, latency and fleet number measured after H is void |
-| D2 | C3 | The litepaper says "12 GB or more proves full shards"; the only measurement puts the prover alone at 13.8 GB on a 32 GB card | Keep the sentence only if the sweep lands a full v1 shard under 11.5 GB with the SP1 knobs; otherwise change to "24 GB proves and mines on one card; 12 and 16 GB cards prove with the miner paused" until the RTX 3060 on order measures it | A public number that the first 3060 owner disproves is the FUD the ledger exists to prevent |
+| D2 | C3 | The litepaper says "12 GB or more proves full shards"; the only measurement puts the prover alone at 13.8 GB on a 32 GB card | The sweep and the S_p curve are in (proving agent, 5 October late): no knob moves the floor; 12 GB proves nothing on SP1 6.8.1, 16 GB proves only empty shards alone, 24 GB proves the adopted 30,000-pgas shard (20.4 GB alone, about 22 GB beside the miner), 32 GB proves everything. Change the sentence to "24 GB or more proves; 32 GB proves and mines on one card" and evidence row 16 to tested-by-the-team on those rows; the 12 GB figure returns only if a smaller GPU server or a smaller shard measures under 12 GB | A public number that the first 3060 owner disproves is the FUD the ledger exists to prevent |
 | D3 | C8, C13 | The homepage says "Any 4 GB card" and the litepaper says a 4 GB card mines for about four years and an 8 GB card for more than a decade; the tile says "4B hard cap" while the rule mints about 3.96 billion | Replace with the lifetime table's numbers once the sub-agent lands it: "4 GB cards mine at launch; 8 GB for about six years; 12 GB for about fourteen; the dataset grows half a gigabyte a year" and "cap 4 billion, about 3.96 billion ever minted" | The schedule is public and the arithmetic is one line; a reader will do it |
 | D4 | C9, C8 | Index mapping at gate 1, now with the lifetime table (`docs/analysis/card-lifetime-2026-10-05.md`): (a) multiply-shift, continuous growth: 4 GB cards out at 1.0 to 1.5 years, 8 GB at 6.3 to 7.5, 12 GB at 12 to 13.5, Apple 8 GB at 2.6 to 3.4; (b) power-of-two steps at years 4, 12, 28, 60: 4 GB to year 4, 8 GB to year 12, 12 GB to year 28 (the cache freed after the build, decided by the coordinator at 22:50), each tier ending on a step day | (b), with the step calendar published on the miners page from day one (the years 4, 12, 28 and 60 named beside the tiers), and the 1 GiB vectors kept. Revised from (a) at 23:0x: the table shows (b) is the only mapping under which the litepaper's "4 GB about four years, 8 GB more than a decade" holds, and a step day known twelve years ahead is a schedule, not an event; the coordinator recommends the same | Under (a) both public sentences are wrong today by 2.5 to 5 years; under (b) they hold and the cliffs are dated |
 | D5 | C10 | The site's "under 2x" chip claim: the scratch layer leaves the on-die-cache recompute chip at 2.4x at every share; the mixer multiplier x2 brings it to 1.2x at twice the CPU verify cost (about 0.9 ms per warp, half the pool members per core) | Carry the mixer x2 into class v3 on the devnet tonight (the coordinator's gates apply, the verify time per warp measured) and keep the claim; if the coordinator judges it outside the delegation, qualify the claim in level 3 until Josh says | The claim is the project's first public sentence on chips; it is either true by a measured lever or it is marked |