igneum-network/igneum
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull requests Releases Activity

adv-accept report: base rate over 88,051 accepted programs; five new lowest seeds queued

Browse source 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
igneum-labs 2026-10-07 20:54:03 +00:00
parent 895cd58ae5
commit 88f369476d
1 changed files with 16 additions and 22 deletions
Show stats Download patch file Download diff file Expand all files Collapse all files

38
docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md
View file

@ -193,38 +193,32 @@ programs gave X_0.1% = 0.155%. If the tail scales as the extreme of the populati
times that, still under 1% of reads. The census over consecutive seeds (random accepted programs) says how
often the hot-set test fires in the population; that number lands below.
### The selector's base rate (sweep rows read at 20:46 BST: 29,032 accepted programs, shards 00, 01, 01b, 02)
### The selector's base rate (sweep rows read at 21:55 BST: 88,051 accepted programs, every shard file de-duplicated by seed)
The stand-in per-site ratio at 256 units, over every accepted program so far (one row per seed; every seed
of the F8 label space yields an accepted program through the chain draw):
| Quantile | min | 0.1% | 1% | 10% | median | max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ratio | 0.9945 | 0.9982 | 0.9993 | 0.9998 | 0.9999 | 1.0000 |
| Quantile | min | 0.1% | 1% | median | max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ratio | 0.9885 | 0.9980 | 0.9993 | 0.9999 | 1.0000 |
| Threshold | Programs under it | Tries per hit |
|---|---|---|
| ratio < 0.9990 | 164 of 29,032 | 1 in 177 |
| ratio < 0.9986 (the five first-confirmed seeds sat here) | 58 | 1 in 501 |
| ratio < 0.9980 | 23 | 1 in 1,262 |
| ratio < 0.9970 | 9 | 1 in 3,226 |
| ratio < 0.9960 | 6 | 1 in 4,839 |
| ratio < 0.9990 | 539 of 88,051 | 1 in 163 |
| ratio < 0.9986 | 198 | 1 in 445 |
| ratio < 0.9980 (the lowest 25 measured live sat at or under this) | 82 | 1 in 1,074 |
| ratio < 0.9970 | 35 | 1 in 2,516 |
| ratio < 0.9960 | 22 | 1 in 4,002 |
Over the 29,032: accepted attempt 0..11 = 9,302, 6,315, 4,298, 2,855, 2,029, 1,322, 960, 634, 409, 311, 175,
130; max 26; mean 2.128; last-resort programs 0; a lossy last write to an output register in 24,285
(83.6 percent); register-set collapse 0; mean `or` count 2.46 per program.
Over the 88,051: accepted attempt 0..11 = 28,107, 19,319, 12,854, 8,758, 6,107, 4,063, 2,837, 1,933, 1,302,
874, 606, 392; max 31; mean 2.134; last-resort programs 0; a lossy last write to an output register in
73,548 (83.5 percent); register-set collapse 0. The five lowest seeds of the 88,051 (122960 at 0.9885,
130488 at 0.9890, 19921 at 0.9914, 600738 at 0.9930, 602822 at 0.9942) sit below every seed measured live so
far and are queued for the live hot-set read at 2^24 and the 2^20 ratio read (rows land below).
Cost of the selector: one chain draw per try (about 3 s of one core: the accepted attempt's 2^20 ratio pass
dominates) plus a 256-unit ratio read (milliseconds), so a seed under 0.9986 costs about 25 core-minutes of
grinding, and a seed-steering attacker who can choose among epoch seeds needs about 500 candidate seeds per
hit. The five confirmed hits at that threshold all failed the f8 1.2x gate live; the random sample's live
failure rate is 0 of 27 so far (census), so the gate-failure rate conditional on the selector is 5 of 5
against 0 of 27 unconditional. The widened rows (20 lowest, 20 random, at 2^24 nonces) turn this into a
correlation with its error when they land (live-low20-16m.log on box 1, live-random20-16m.log on box 2).
Attempt histogram over the 16,337 (accepted attempt 0..11): 5,271, 3,602, 2,434, 1,585, 1,110, 740, 521,
368, 211, 166, 100, 72; max 26; mean 2.097; last-resort programs 0. Q5 structure: a lossy last write to an
output register in 13,662 (83.6%), register-set collapse 0.
dominates) plus a 256-unit ratio read (milliseconds). A seed-steering attacker who can choose among epoch
seeds needs about 1,000 candidate seeds per seed under 0.9980, where the live hot-set rate was 7 of 25.
### Row 90 (owner adv-accept-3, unspawned; claimed): the attempt loop, the cap and the last resort