adv-accept-3: Q2 status at 14,975 seeds

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>

docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule-3.md

@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ internal adversarial pass, not an independent review
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 | Q1 | Exhaustion: P(a seed exhausts 256 attempts), per-part rejection rates, attempt distribution | Cite row 90 (lane adv-accept, 16,337 seeds); add this lane's static per-part rates over 3,009,928 candidates of 10^6 seeds and the geometric fit | the reject-everything mirror of Q1b | P(exhaust) bounded with its count | per attempt: accept 0.323, reject 0.677 ((a') 0.568, (a) 0.079, (b) 0.022, dynamic parts about 0.009); histogram geometric (bin ratios 0.65 to 0.71); P(exhaust) = 0.677^256 = 4.6 x 10^-44; 0 of 16,337 seeds reached the cap | BOUND |
 | Q1b | The last-resort program: weak, constant, predictable | `last_resort_v4(candidate(b, 256))` through the library on 3,000 seeds, the REAL rule run on each | `adv3 exhaust-mirror`: a reject-everything loop must hit the cap and print the last resort | last resort characterised; no predictable or weak accepted program | mirror fired (cap 256, byte-identical to the library's). 3,000 seeds DONE: the real rule REJECTS 271 of 3,000 last-resort programs (9.0 percent): 251 by (a) cyclic stale load, 14 by (b), 6 by (c) distinct sum; 3,000 distinct programs; 0 lossy ops; chi-square against the weights 39 (mean), largest op share 37 percent | FINDING (correctness, unreachable at 4.6 x 10^-44): the "accepted as drawn" last resort fails the rule's own (a) in 1 of 12 seeds |
-| Q2 | Steering with the full rule: tries per quantile of each property | `adv3 steer`, the real draw per seed, min per-site ratio at 256 units plus static properties; 2 x 10^4 seeds queued | `--plant hot`: two `or` writers before a load's source must put the planted set in the lowest quantile | tabulated; no property reaches a 1.1x chip gain under 10^5 tries | plant: 45 of 48 planted rows at ratio 0.207 to 0.993 against a population minimum of 0.999 at 256 units (3 did not fire: the scan found no ALU writer to change); the real rule rejects every effective plant by (a'). First 975 seeds (part 1): min ratio 0.998, median 0.999; 18 of 18 chain re-draws equal; 0 last-resort programs; per-attempt rejects (a') 1,820, (a) 257, (b) 87, (c'') 26, (c) 19 of 3,184 candidates | RUNNING (sweeps 93, 96 chunked) |
+| Q2 | Steering with the full rule: tries per quantile of each property | `adv3 steer`, the real draw per seed, min per-site ratio at 256 units plus static properties; 2 x 10^4 seeds queued | `--plant hot`: two `or` writers before a load's source must put the planted set in the lowest quantile | tabulated; no property reaches a 1.1x chip gain under 10^5 tries | plant: 45 of 48 planted rows at ratio 0.207 to 0.993 against a population minimum of 0.999 at 256 units (3 did not fire: the scan found no ALU writer to change); the real rule rejects every effective plant by (a'). First 975 seeds (part 1): min ratio 0.998, median 0.999; 18 of 18 chain re-draws equal; 0 last-resort programs; per-attempt rejects (a') 1,820, (a) 257, (b) 87, (c'') 26, (c) 19 of 3,184 candidates | RUNNING: 14,975 seeds at 22:25 BST (s00 done, s01 to 14,999); 46,702 candidates; the lowest 256-unit ratio 0.995 on five seeds (1 in 3,000), all clean live where measured (Q2c); the (c) tails at 151 saturated of 163, bias 122 of 136, distinct 123.75 of 120; 298 of 298 chain re-draws equal; 0 last-resort programs; the only uncovered seeds are 25 in the 20:22 kill window (893 to 999), no pre-emption gap so far |
 | Q2b | Static steering at 10^6 seeds | `adv3 static`: the first candidate passing (a), (b), (a') per seed, static properties, quantiles to 10^-6 | the plant of Q2 (the same property code) | the 10^-5 and 10^-6 quantiles of each property, priced | DONE: table in section 3; the best property at 1 in 10^6 tries is a shadow block with 38 multiplies of 256 (mean 74), worth about 2 to 3 percent of the f = 1 chip's energy per hash (approximate); the load critical path at 40 of 128 (median 72) is worth nothing at the memory activate ceiling | BOUND |
 | Q2c | Live hot set of the lowest-ratio steered seeds | f8 `warps` on the lowest-ratio seeds of Q2 | f8's own const-item plant | the worst steered seed's gain priced | plant FLAGGED (X_0.1% +6.25, 24.9x); control clear; the five lowest of 975 (ratio 0.998): within the 1.2x gate (1.01x to 1.13x), no hot set, 6-sigma flagged (+32 to +164); the three lowest of 4,975 (ratio 0.995: seeds 2653, 3296, 4388): PASS with no test fired (1.0007x to 1.0008x, X_0.1%/f 0.002, 6-sigma +4.3 to +4.8, the control's level); worst case over the eight: 1.0004x | BOUND: the 0.995 seeds PASS at 2^24 (0.9998x to 1.0002x); seed 620 at 2^24 is beyond the 1.2x share gate (1.43x) with no hot set (X_f/f 0.77), 1.0008x: the lane's worst live case |
 | Q3 | Program id: collisions and derivation agreement | `adv3 ids` over 10^7 (seed, attempt) pairs; `adv3 idcheck` by three derivations | low-32 collision counts must match the birthday expectation; one attempt bit flipped must change the id | 0 collisions; the derivation that matches the packs named | 0 id collisions, 0 program-stream state collisions, 0 seed-word collisions over 10^7 pairs (control: 11,759 low-32 id collisions against 11,641 expected); FINDING: program.json's `program_id_derivation` string and spec 1.4.6 state a derivation WITHOUT the `"sub/" || 3_le16` suffix the code appends for generator 4; an implementation written from the text computes 30956569d8f3d8d7 for Devnet 3 where the pack carries fce15bf61030be57 | FINDING (interoperability, not consensus) |