morning summary, 6 October 2026

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>

docs/plans/morning-2026-10-06.md

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+# Morning summary, 6 October 2026
+
+Written for Josh at 08:40 UTC. Every number is in `docs/bench-log.md` or the named plan with the command that produced it. Failures are listed with the passes.
+
+## The headline
+
+Everything on the overnight list landed. The one thing that could have gone wrong, switching the live chain to program class v3, held.
+
+| Piece | State | Number |
+|---|---|---|
+| 0.3.11 (class v3 + proving v1) | On master 630da6b, three master CI runs green, rolled out to the Mac, PC 2, the seed, both hand nodes; PC 1 took it at 07:00 | Live manifest 0.3.11, nine-field override, digest 0139ab9d |
+| Counter ASIC 2.0 crossing | Crossed at 03:51:42 UTC, watcher verdict PASS | 58.7 blocks a minute before, 59.2 after; three hourly swaps since, no pause, 0 refusals |
+| 12 GB proving | Floor broken on a patched SP1 server (`prover-floor` 2d422b3); real card lands today, test on PC 2 | 10.3 GB alone, 5.7 s a shard; 16 GB mines and proves (12.9 GB, 17.4 s) |
+| On-die recompute chip | Emulated on the 5090's own L2 (`ledger-pc2` 564acab) | 0.256x honest, 5.1x worse per joule |
+| Ledger | Rounds 2 and 3 closed (`fud-close` d16bc3b, `ledger-rebase` abb08a5) | 47 consequence rows, 42 closed or taken, 14 decisions |
+| Branches ready for later cuts | pool-v0, rig-install, repro-bench b776199, ember-tune 9a6469f, ota-k2, asic-history, proving-methods | measured where PC 2 allowed |
+
+## Since you got up (07:00 to 08:40 UTC)
+
+| What | State |
+|---|---|
+| PC 1 | Back on 0.3.11 at 07:00, 5090 and 9070 XT mining; integrated card off. The update needed your click because the app's hourly rollout slot had not come; fixed as a catch-up rule (`update-catchup` 2207cd7, 0.3.12) |
+| Mac | Mining paused through the app (persists); its node runs |
+| Chain | 19 miner ids, 225 MH/s on the two PCs |
+| Zero proven segments | Solved prover-side: the prover claims a whole segment and proves its 8 blocks in order. Measured on PC 2 beside the miner: one segment every 210 s, 8 of 8 shard records accepted, 585 blocks of margin. The segment RECORD is still refused by the chain's rule; the proving agent's report says whether that is a node rule (0.3.12) or a consensus one (two-manifest publish) |
+| Ember Tune re-run on PC 1 | Failed at 07:56 with no rows: the playbook wrote the test engine's settings with a byte-order mark, the engine parsed defaults, sat idle 35 minutes. Nothing was set on either card; the app restored its miners by itself. Fixed (8273494, watchdog 1e9550e, CI check). Re-run `ember-tune-pc1-3` needs one more click when you are back |
+| GPU list order | Cards ordered by performance, integrated last (`card-order` ffb2bfa, 0.3.12) |
+| Counter ASIC 3.0 | Running, all seven items plus a new item 8. See below |
+| 0.3.12 | Being prepared, app only, stops at the publish gate for your go |
+
+## Counter ASIC 3.0 so far
+
+The finding that matters: the chip that wins is not the clever recompute chip 2.0 priced. It is a stored-dataset chip, the whole dataset in DRAM, a 28 nm memory-controller die doing dependent reads.
+
+| Attacker | Per chip vs 5090 | Per joule vs 5090 | Source |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| On-die recompute chip (2.0's model) | 0.92x with the 3x allowance | 1.86x | chip-model-v3 |
+| Same, emulated on the 5090's L2 | 0.256x | 0.2x | M16 inline bench |
+| Stored-dataset chip, GDDR7 | 1.22x | 5.1x | item 1 |
+| Stored-dataset chip, HBM3 | about 1.2x | 7.5x to 9.2x | item 1 |
+| Ethash precedent (E3, A10) | | 2.1x to 4.8x | history rows 3, 4 |
+| Stored-dataset chip with the latency shadow filled (item 8, N = 100,000, parity cores) | | 2.7x vs 5090, 1.4x vs M5 Max | item 8 Mac rows |
+
+Why: at the hash the 5090 spends about 55 W on memory and the rest keeping a GPU alive at 0.15 percent of its integer budget. The lever is RandomX's lever: make the hash use the rest of the chip. The 5090 can hide about 330,000 operations per hash behind its 128 reads; today it hides 512. Item 8 measures that fill: on the Mac it costs 1.5 percent of rate at 100,000 ops, the verifier barely notices, and the chip's edge drops from 5x to 2.7x. The 5090's rows are queued on PC 2. The deciding number is the chip core's energy per op against a GPU's ALU, which item 8 is pricing.
+
+Other items: item 2 (per-day random derivation) works bit-exact at no hash cost and drops the recompute chip to 0.29x to 0.43x, but at full size its CPU verifier is over the 10 ms gate on an old core; it goes in as a reserve, the half-size draw passes, and the class v4 candidate is the pairing of derivation class and program length under one verifier gate. Item 3: cryptanalysis brief and budget line, USD 80,000 to 160,000, one firm plus one academic group, verdict GO to commission, nobody contacted. Items 4 and 5: share-pattern detector in the observer (fires on a fabricated fixed design, quiet on the devnet), issuance trigger at USD 20,000 a day, FPGA soft overlay 0.3x to 0.4x a 5090 per watt, layer 9 ranked above layer 7. Items 6 and 7 in flight.
+
+## Decisions for you
+
+The full list with recommendations is in `consequences-decisions.md` (14) and the 3.0 status file. The ones that bite first:
+
+1. **The public claim "under 2x".** True of the recompute chip per chip, false of the stored-dataset chip per joule. Two re-wordings are drafted in the 3.0 status file; nothing on the site changed. Pick one before any public push.
+2. **The segment rule.** If the refused segment record is a consensus rule, it is a two-manifest publish at tip + 14,400; if node-side, 0.3.12 carries it.
+3. **0.3.12 go.** App only: the state-reply fix, the update catch-up, the card order, Ember Tune and its guards. No prompt on any machine.
+4. **The 12 GB card.** Into PC 2 when it lands (PC 1 has no prover toolchain); the playbook is written.
+5. **Cryptanalysis budget** (D11 and item 3), **growth mapping (b)** (D4), **a release-tag convention**, **the bounty only once escrowed**.
+
+## What went wrong, plainly
+
+- Epoch-34 pack outage, 18:23 UTC, 56 minutes of both PCs down: a pack-attempt bug in the worker loader. Hot fix shipped by job; class fix in 0.3.10.
+- GitHub Actions outage forced a PC-built 0.3.10. 0.3.11's first CI run then failed in the census crate nobody updated for class v3; fixed (2a62735), rerun green.
+- Credits ran out at 19:58 UTC and killed three agents; resumed.
+- The 9070 XT dropped off the bus four times; the reading was wrong, the relay's "PC1" is PC 2.
+- A 2.2x verifier regression on the mixer branch, caught before publish.
+- Two Mac-only v3 outages caught by the Metal gate before publish.
+- "12 GB proves" was false on the shipped prover; the floor was SP1's server code; patched.
+- A job quit PC 1's app at 22:31 UTC (a second engine ran the urgent updater, whose installer sent quit). Rule written, CI gate added; PC 1 stayed down all night. Fixed in e600e63.
+- Three dark proving windows on PC 2, all the same state-reply bug (paid_wei above u64::MAX empties the reply); 0.3.12's first item.
+- The Mac miner lost its node subscription for 11 minutes after a node restart (C43, 0.3.12).
+- The 0.3.11 update on PC 1 waited on the hourly slot and needed your click; catch-up rule in 0.3.12.
+- Ember's first real run burned 35 minutes and your prompt on a byte-order mark; fixed with a watchdog and a CI check.
+- The 07:45 summary task never fired on its own and its manual run stalled on a tool prompt; this document was written by hand.
+
+## Today's hands list
+
+1. 0.3.12 go when the shipper reports it green.
+2. One click for the Ember re-run on PC 1.
+3. The 3060 into PC 2; the playbook runs the same fixture as the sweeps.
+4. 16:00 UTC: the fee-switch check (every prover on 0.3.11 before H = 210,000 at about 19:15 UTC).
+5. USB copies of the key backup (10:00 reminder).
+6. The decisions above.