diff --git a/docs/plans/counter-asic-3-public-text-2026-10-07.md b/docs/plans/counter-asic-3-public-text-2026-10-07.md index 92808bf9c..bca95e4e6 100644 --- a/docs/plans/counter-asic-3-public-text-2026-10-07.md +++ b/docs/plans/counter-asic-3-public-text-2026-10-07.md @@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ The chip model. We price the strongest chip we can design against an RTX 5090 an | The same chip under class v4 (about 100,000 integer ops per hash in the latency shadow, so the chip carries a GPU-class datapath beside its memory) | 2.1x with a core as costly per op as the GPU's (k = 1); 3.9x with the core Bitmain claimed for its Antminer X9 (k about 0.33), a product withdrawn before any unit shipped | modelled on measured card watts, 6 October 2026; the X9 figure claimed, never measured | | The same chip at the ladder's second rung (about 200,000 ops per hash) | about 2.8x | modelled, 7 October 2026 | | Any chip under class v5, where the dataset is the chain's own state | a stateless or stale chip is wrong on every item, so the stored-dataset chip and the recompute chip are removed as categories; the verifier pays 0.2 ms more per warp | designed, 7 October 2026 | -| A chip caching the hottest 0.1 percent of items (1.7 MB of SRAM) | under one percent of rate, read against the class's own window model | measured on one program, 7 October 2026; the 64-seed census pending; the tighter bound in the next class | +| A chip caching the hottest 0.1 percent of items (about 1 MB of SRAM) | bounded at 1.067x at the ceiling, 1.005x on about half the hours and 1.048x on 5 percent | measured census of 1,024 programs, 7 October 2026; the source rule in the next class | | A per-day FPGA that recomputes the dataset with cheap multipliers on a weak day | at most 12 percent more hash rate on 12 days a century, nothing on the other days and nothing for any chip | measured census of 2^24 days, 7 October 2026; the rule in the next class | | When a stored-dataset chip pays for itself | at about USD 100 M of market cap in the first two years, not before | modelled, 7 October 2026 | @@ -30,4 +30,4 @@ Your card against the strongest chip we can price: an RTX 5090 at 136 MH/s on 35 | # | Claim | Where it is served | Status | Source | Numbers | Open | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| -| 17 | The chip resistance claim: the strongest chip in the public model reaches 5x to 9x per joule against an RTX 5090 today (modelled); class v4 brings it to 2.1x (k = 1) to 3.9x (k about 0.33, claimed by a withdrawn product) and its second rung to about 2.8x (modelled on measured watts); class v5 makes the dataset the chain's state so a stateless or stale chip is wrong on every item (designed, +0.2 ms verifier); the hot-set cache under one percent (measured, one program, against the window model) and the weak-day FPGA at most 12 percent on 12 days a century (measured census) are bounded and routed to the next class; datacentre silicon (H100 SXM, measured 7 October) does not change the question; a stored-dataset chip pays for itself only at about USD 100 M of market cap in two years (modelled) | the home page's chip line, the litepaper's chip section, the miner page's line (the texts of `docs/plans/counter-asic-3-public-text-2026-10-07.md`) | modelled (the chip), measured (every card, the verifier, the two attack-pass bounds, the H100), designed (class v5, the ladder), claimed (the X9 core) | `docs/analysis/chip-model-v3.md` 5 and 6; `docs/analysis/latency-shadow-2026-10-06.md`; `docs/plans/counter-asic-3-status.md`; `docs/analysis/attack-pass/f8-uniform.md`, `f4-weakday.md`; `docs/design/class-v5-stored-state.md`; the H100 and market-cap rows of 7 October; `docs/plans/funding.md` (the three lots, the prize) | 136 MH/s at 350 W (5090, bench) and 290 W (app); 27 MH/s at 21 W (M5 Max); 249 MH/s (H100 SXM) at 98 percent of its read ceiling, 1.78x hash, 1.15x MH/W, a third per rented dollar; 2.33 ms per warp; 5.1x to 9.2x; 2.1x, 3.9x, 2.8x; under 1 percent; 12 percent on 12 days a century; 10.85 ms at rung 3; USD 100 M; USD 50,000 | the 64-seed hot-set census; the three cryptanalysis lots; the prize's first claim | +| 17 | The chip resistance claim: the strongest chip in the public model reaches 5x to 9x per joule against an RTX 5090 today (modelled); class v4 brings it to 2.1x (k = 1) to 3.9x (k about 0.33, claimed by a withdrawn product) and its second rung to about 2.8x (modelled on measured watts); class v5 makes the dataset the chain's state so a stateless or stale chip is wrong on every item (designed, +0.2 ms verifier); the hot-set cache bounded at 1.067x at the ceiling (measured census of 1,024 programs) and the weak-day FPGA at most 12 percent on 12 days a century (measured census) are bounded and routed to the next class; datacentre silicon (H100 SXM, measured 7 October) does not change the question; a stored-dataset chip pays for itself only at about USD 100 M of market cap in two years (modelled) | the home page's chip line, the litepaper's chip section, the miner page's line (the texts of `docs/plans/counter-asic-3-public-text-2026-10-07.md`) | modelled (the chip), measured (every card, the verifier, the two attack-pass bounds, the H100), designed (class v5, the ladder), claimed (the X9 core) | `docs/analysis/chip-model-v3.md` 5 and 6; `docs/analysis/latency-shadow-2026-10-06.md`; `docs/plans/counter-asic-3-status.md`; `docs/analysis/attack-pass/f8-uniform.md`, `f4-weakday.md`; `docs/design/class-v5-stored-state.md`; the H100 and market-cap rows of 7 October; `docs/plans/funding.md` (the three lots, the prize) | 136 MH/s at 350 W (5090, bench) and 290 W (app); 27 MH/s at 21 W (M5 Max); 249 MH/s (H100 SXM) at 98 percent of its read ceiling, 1.78x hash, 1.15x MH/W, a third per rented dollar; 2.33 ms per warp; 5.1x to 9.2x; 2.1x, 3.9x, 2.8x; 1.067x at the ceiling; 12 percent on 12 days a century; 10.85 ms at rung 3; USD 100 M; USD 50,000 | the three cryptanalysis lots; the prize's first claim | diff --git a/docs/plans/counter-asic-3-status.md b/docs/plans/counter-asic-3-status.md index 3bae8381c..03a686c24 100644 --- a/docs/plans/counter-asic-3-status.md +++ b/docs/plans/counter-asic-3-status.md @@ -335,6 +335,9 @@ the project lead gave the go in advance for tonight: the shipper runs publish 1 | The lane's framing | class v4's item map is not designed to be uniform per program: layer 8's per-site windows (k_off = below(3): the whole dataset, a half or a quarter per site, under the era stride and interleave) concentrate a quarter-window site 4x on its quarter, which is the 4.05x; the null is the window model from the program's own 16 draws; the 153x item is the number to explain (coinciding windows under the era mapping with a stated tail, or a low-entropy source at site 15, a fault); the chip consequence a 1.7 MB hot-set cache serving 0.5 percent of reads, under one percent of rate | | The cut consequence | v4 is on the live devnet's vote and the class lives in the binary: any generator change to v4 is a class change (new vectors, the six gates) that must reach every node before the flip or the chain splits; unless F8's phase E census shows a fault beyond the window model, the answer is the documented null and, for a tighter tail, an acceptance bound in the next class, not in v4; a fault beyond the model is main's and the shipper's decision (a class amendment before the flip, or the flip held by the floor) | | Who | the hash lane, branch ca3-v4-uniform from master: the model, the reproduction with F8's harness on the v4 packs and the mixer harness's 200 programs, the census, the re-priced row; a fix only on a fault | +| THE ANALYSIS (the hash lane, ca3-v4-uniform 095f84a7, `docs/analysis/ca3-v4-uniform.md`, the tool on igneum-build-1) | the window model moves the null from 0.115 to 0.160 percent (1.39x, not 4.05x); the rest is a FAULT beyond it: site 15 reads a register last written by `or r6, r4`, so all-ones recurs at (3/4)^32 per read and the era map sends it to F8's hottest item exactly (the popcount model predicts 77,348 all-ones reads against 78,479; the top-0.1-percent share 0.58 against 0.52); it passes the acceptance rule because part (a) takes any write as a fresh source and part (c) counts saturation on final values only. The census of 1,024 chain-shaped v4 programs: 96.6 percent carry a lossy-sourced load (or, mul, mulhi as the last writer), 48.5 percent an or-sourced one (0.30 percent of all reads per site), 4.9 percent an or-of-or chain (4.6 percent of all reads on 0.1 percent of items); F8's 1.2x gate fails 96.6 percent of today's programs. Worth to a chip: 1.07 MB of SRAM ($0.25) serving 0.52 percent of a typical program's reads and 4.6 percent of the worst class's, at most 1.005x and 1.048x in rate; the ceiling under rule (c)'s 120-of-128 floor one site repeating its item in all 8 iterations, 6.25 percent of reads, 1.067x in 64 bytes; the 2x margin stands; the public line says "bounded at 1.067x", not "uniform" (the public text corrected) | +| The two options, priced, STOPPED at the coordinator for the project lead's word | A: a 0.3.19 class amendment before the flip (the generator draws a load's source from the registers whose last writer injects): a new program stream, new vectors, the seven gate packs re-exported, the six gates again (G1 to G3 and the verifier about an hour on the Mac and PC 2; G4 to G6 the node lane), every node before the flip under the one-box-at-a-time rule; the risk a node that misses the build splits the chain at the flip. B: hold the flip at the floor with v4 as it is; the bound documented; the source rule to class v5: a hot set worth up to 1.005x on about half the hours and 1.05x on 5 percent, 1.067x at the ceiling; no chain risk. The number: 1.067x at the ceiling against the 2x margin. The lane recommends B | +| The v5 bound (sent to the v5 lane) | H = W_0.1 (the window term, 0.115 to 0.251 percent) + the sum over load sites of h(last writer) (or 0.30 percent, an or chain 4.5, mul 0.067, mulhi 0.049, an injecting op or a rotate 0), H at or under 1.2 x W_0.1, which is the static rule "every load's source was last written by an injecting op or a rotate"; as a rejection it costs 96.6 percent of candidates (about 30 attempts per seed), as a generator draw nothing; gate F8's 64-seed census with the saturated-source count | | Main's rulings (7 October, morning) | no generator change to v4 on the live devnet; the record's null is the window model with numbers, sent by the hash lane to the attack-pass lane so AP-F8-1 re-gates against it; a fault beyond the model (a low-entropy source at site 15) stops at the coordinator with the two options priced (a 0.3.19 class amendment before the flip, or the flip held at the floor), nothing shipping without the project lead's word; the tighter tail, an acceptance bound on the hot-set share, is a CLASS V5 item (sent to the v5 lane a6410f3b8abefb762 with the 64-seed census as its gate; the bound's number follows from the model) | ### AP-F4-1, the weak-day MUL draw (the attack-pass lane, 7 October, morning): PASS against v4, a class v5 rule