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adv-accept-3: section 8 (box-hours 3.3, the bound reached, what a longer pass adds)

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Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule-3.md
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@ -277,7 +277,11 @@ The twelve (c'') ratios: 0.814, 0.815, 0.815, 0.856, 0.856, 0.885, 0.913, 0.933,
## 8. Box-hours and what a longer pass would add
Spent at 20:20 BST: about 0.15 box-hours (section header). Queued: sweeps 93 and 96 (about 2 box-hours each), 94 (about 1), 95 (about 1), 97, 98, 99 (under 0.5 together). A longer pass would run the full-rule steering sweep to 10^5 seeds (10 box-hours at the lock's rate) to read the ratio tail at 10^-5 with the live f8 census on the lowest ten, and a chosen-id preimage attempt through `seed_words_from_bytes` (a 2^32-class meet in the middle on FNV-1a-64 is the published shape; the murmur finaliser is the obstacle).
Spent at 23:02 BST: about 3.3 box-hours. By step: builds 5 x under 1 min; idcheck, margins, exhaust-mirror, ids and two static 10^6 sweeps about 5 min together; the plant run 1 min at 48 threads; steer 19,975 seeds at 88 then 23 to 32 cores, about 1.6 box-hours; verdicts faithful 1,792 seeds, noncyclic 300, floor97 300, spec 400, about 0.7 together; last resort 3,000 seeds 0.3; f8 live census 8 runs at 10^6 and 4 at 2^24 nonces, about 0.5; ratios 300 seeds 0.1. The 8-hour reading line was not reached.
Bound reached, honestly: exhaustion is bounded at 1.0 x 10^-43 per epoch seed from 62,240 candidates of 19,975 full-rule seeds plus 3 x 10^6 static candidates of 10^6 seeds (0 at the cap in either); the last resort is characterised on 3,000 seeds and found to fail the rule itself in 9 percent of them (FINDING, unreachable); steering is bounded over 19,975 full-rule seeds and 10^6 static seeds with the worst live hot set of eight measured at 1.0008x and no static property buying over about 1.03x at one seed in a million; the id is bounded at 0 collisions in 10^7 pairs with the stated derivation wrong (FINDING); determinism is bounded by a second interpretation agreeing on 5,748 of 5,748 verdicts with a fired control, the f64 ratio safe by 0.32 counts at the shipped constants, and the spec text diverging on 264 of 400 programs (FINDING, documentary).
What a longer pass would add, not a reason to wait: the full-rule steering sweep to 10^5 seeds (about 8 box-hours at 32 cores) to read the stand-in ratio and the (c) tails at 10^-5, with the live census on the lowest twenty at 2^24 nonces; a live census at scale (3 s per seed on 32 cores) as the grinder's true selector, since the stand-in ratio's floor is noise; the ratios sweep to 3,000 seeds to put an error bar on the 0.967 to 0.988 gap; a chosen-id preimage attempt through `seed_words_from_bytes` (a 2^32-class meet in the middle on FNV-1a-64 is the published shape, the murmur finaliser the obstacle); and the era-steer listing to 10^4 eras for the stride's weak classes at 2^-22.
## 8b. Ledger: the 20:22 BST kill