From 14f7a6cd7db6b49036ea3e30fb62bb4709d3d35d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: igneum-labs <337424239+igneum-labs@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Wed, 7 Oct 2026 22:11:06 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] adv-accept report: base rate over 143,734 accepted programs; four deep-tail seeds queued Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- .../cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md | 24 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 12 insertions(+), 12 deletions(-) diff --git a/docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md b/docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md index d68ed0e97..b703ceb17 100644 --- a/docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md +++ b/docs/analysis/cryptanalysis/report-acceptance-rule.md @@ -193,28 +193,28 @@ programs gave X_0.1% = 0.155%. If the tail scales as the extreme of the populati times that, still under 1% of reads. The census over consecutive seeds (random accepted programs) says how often the hot-set test fires in the population; that number lands below. -### The selector's base rate (sweep rows read at 21:55 BST: 88,051 accepted programs, every shard file de-duplicated by seed) +### The selector's base rate (sweep rows read at 23:10 BST: 143,734 accepted programs, every shard file de-duplicated by seed) The stand-in per-site ratio at 256 units, over every accepted program so far (one row per seed; every seed of the F8 label space yields an accepted program through the chain draw): | Quantile | min | 0.1% | 1% | median | max | |---|---|---|---|---|---| -| ratio | 0.9885 | 0.9980 | 0.9993 | 0.9999 | 1.0000 | +| ratio | 0.9811 | 0.9981 | 0.9993 | 0.9999 | 1.0000 | | Threshold | Programs under it | Tries per hit | |---|---|---| -| ratio < 0.9990 | 539 of 88,051 | 1 in 163 | -| ratio < 0.9986 | 198 | 1 in 445 | -| ratio < 0.9980 (the lowest 25 measured live sat at or under this) | 82 | 1 in 1,074 | -| ratio < 0.9970 | 35 | 1 in 2,516 | -| ratio < 0.9960 | 22 | 1 in 4,002 | +| ratio < 0.9990 | 850 of 143,734 | 1 in 169 | +| ratio < 0.9980 (the lowest 25 measured live sat at or under this) | 133 | 1 in 1,081 | +| ratio < 0.9970 | 55 | 1 in 2,613 | +| ratio < 0.9960 | 33 | 1 in 4,356 | +| ratio < 0.9950 | 10 | 1 in 14,373 | -Over the 88,051: accepted attempt 0..11 = 28,107, 19,319, 12,854, 8,758, 6,107, 4,063, 2,837, 1,933, 1,302, -874, 606, 392; max 31; mean 2.134; last-resort programs 0; a lossy last write to an output register in -73,548 (83.5 percent); register-set collapse 0. The five lowest seeds of the 88,051 (122960 at 0.9885, -130488 at 0.9890, 19921 at 0.9914, 600738 at 0.9930, 602822 at 0.9942) sit below every seed measured live so -far and are queued for the live hot-set read at 2^24 and the 2^20 ratio read (rows land below). +Over the 143,734: accepted attempt 0..11 = 46,120, 31,486, 21,002, 14,347, 9,948, 6,648, 4,515, 3,098, +2,124, 1,410, 955, 638; max 31; mean 2.122; last-resort programs 0; a lossy last write to an output +register in 120,145 (83.6 percent); register-set collapse 0. The twelve lowest: 148927 (0.9811), 122960, +130488, 150347 (0.9897), 19921, 29307 (0.9914), 34501 (0.9929), 600738, 602822, 3664, 117832, 210492; the +four not yet measured live (148927, 150347, 29307, 34501) are queued at 2^24 and at 2^20 on box 2. Cost of the selector: one chain draw per try (about 3 s of one core: the accepted attempt's 2^20 ratio pass dominates) plus a 256-unit ratio read (milliseconds). A seed-steering attacker who can choose among epoch